Energy Market Briefing

Thursday 8 October 2026 · Generated 10:00 BST · Past 24 hours

Trump said on Wednesday he does not really want a deal with Iran and US officials are reported to be discussing a return to large-scale military action, which keeps Gulf supply risk high. UK gas and power firmed in the nearest seasons at the 7 October close while later years eased.

UK Gas▲

NBP Sum-27 up 2.1% at the 7 October close

UK Power▲

Sum-27 up 2.7%, following gas

EU Storage▲

73.0% full, 16.7pp under norm

Market bias

Firm, upside riskSofter · Firmer

Talk of renewed US action against Iran and thin EU storage support prices, with the nearest seasons leading.

UK gas Sum-27

4.97p/kWh

+2.1% on the 7 Oct close

UK power Sum-27

11.50p/kWh

+2.7% on the 7 Oct close

EU gas storage

73.0% full

16.7pp below 5yr norm

TTF prompt

75.56EUR/MWh

+3.4% at the 6 Oct close

Brent crude

100.58$/bbl

+0.3% at the 6 Oct close

Today's headlines

1 · GEOPOLITICS
Trump says he does not really want an Iran deal and US officials are reported to be weighing renewed large-scale strikes.
Trump cools on a deal
Speaking at a rally in San Antonio late on Wednesday 7 October, Trump said a deal with Iran was not really something he wanted to do, while adding that Iran was willing to offer the US anything to stop and that envoy Steve Witkoff was doing very well (market news email, 8 October).
Renewed strikes under discussion
NBC News reported on Wednesday, citing a US official and another person with knowledge of the talks, that Trump and his national security team have discussed resuming large-scale military operations in the coming weeks, potentially before next month's midterm elections (market news email, 8 October). This is a report of discussions, not a decision.
Why it matters for gas
Gulf supply risk is the main upside driver for UK gas and power. Reports through September described LNG flows through the Strait of Hormuz as largely stalled since the war began, and I could not find a fresher flow count for this morning, so treat the current level of Qatari exports as unconfirmed.
2 · PRICES
UK gas and power firmed in the nearest seasons at the last close, while prices further out eased.
Close on 7 October: nearest seasons lead
UK gas rose 2.12% for Sum-27 to 4.97 p/kWh and 1.8% for Win-27 to 4.78 p/kWh. UK power followed, up 2.69% for Sum-27 to 11.50 p/kWh and 2.22% for Win-27 to 11.55 p/kWh (Market Table email, 8 October).
Further out, prices eased
From Sum-28 onward the picture softened. UK gas fell between 0.89% and 1.14% across Sum-28 to Win-29, ending at 2.80 p/kWh for Win-29, while UK power slipped up to 1.43% for Win-29 to 7.77 p/kWh.
Wider markets at the 6 October close
TTF prompt settled at 75.56 EUR/MWh, up 3.4% on the day, and Brent at 100.58 $/bbl, up 0.3% (LSEG Market Data, 6 October). TTF is background only for UK readers. Win-26 has now started delivering so it no longer appears in the forward table.
3 · GENERATION
Wind and imports carried most of Britain's power this morning, leaving gas plants with a small share of the mix.
Wind and imports lead
At 09:40 BST on 8 October, wind supplied 11.44 GW against demand of 34.94 GW, about a third of the total. Net interconnector imports contributed roughly 7.9 GW, led by France at 3.99 GW (GridWatch).
Gas plants a small share
Combined cycle gas plants ran at just 1.51 GW, about 4% of demand, with solar at 4.59 GW, nuclear at 4.01 GW and biomass at 3.02 GW. A windy morning with strong imports limits how much gas sets the pace for spot power at this hour.
Norwegian maintenance ahead
Published maintenance schedules list Nyhamna annual maintenance starting in early October and an Oseberg stop of about 27.5 mcm/d from 10 to 23 October, with Troll stops of around 11 to 12 mcm/d pencilled for mid and late October (Reuters schedule via Capital.com). Dates differ between versions and are provisional, and I could not confirm today's actual flows.

Forward curve & seasonal movesi

UK powerUK gas NBPmonthly forward, p/kWh · market close on 7 October 2026

7 Oct 2026

Season	Power	Δ	Gas	Δ
Sum-27	11.50	+2.69%	4.97	+2.12%
Win-27	11.55	+2.22%	4.78	+1.80%
Sum-28	7.66	+0.49%	3.06	-0.89%
Win-28	8.35	-0.60%	3.27	-0.94%
Sum-29	7.07	-0.44%	2.49	-1.12%
Win-29	7.77	-1.43%	2.80	-1.14%

Seasonal contracts in p/kWh, change is day on day, as of market close on 7 October 2026.

UK generation mixi

Wind11.44 GW32.7%

Interconnectors7.89 GW22.6%

Solar4.59 GW13.1%

Nuclear4.01 GW11.5%

Biomass3.02 GW8.6%

Gas (CCGT + OCGT)1.51 GW4.3%

Hydro + pumped0.71 GW2.0%

Other1.77 GW5.1%

As of 8 October 2026, 09:40 BST. Tap a fuel or a slice to isolate it, tap again to reset.

EU gas storagei

Now

73.0%

5yr norm

89.7%

-16.7pp vs 5yr normDashed line: 90% winter target

Winter 2026/27 target is 90% of capacity by 1 December, with Commission flexibility down to 80%. As of 6 October 2026.

Other commoditiesi

TTF▲+3.44%JKM▲+0.64%Brent▲+0.26%WTI▲+0.01%UK carbon▲+0.38%EU carbon▲+1.09%FTSE 100▲+0.42%GBPUSD▲+0.40%GBPEUR▲+0.08%Gold▲+0.58%TTF▲+3.44%JKM▲+0.64%Brent▲+0.26%WTI▲+0.01%UK carbon▲+0.38%EU carbon▲+1.09%FTSE 100▲+0.42%GBPUSD▲+0.40%GBPEUR▲+0.08%Gold▲+0.58%

Global gasiTTF▲+3.44%JKM▲+0.64%

OiliBrent▲+0.26%WTI▲+0.01%

CarboniUK carbon▲+0.38%EU carbon▲+1.09%

FTSE 100i▲+0.42%

ForexiGBPUSD▲+0.40%GBPEUR▲+0.08%

Goldi▲+0.58%

Past 6 months of daily closes. As of 6 October 2026. Change shown is the latest close against the previous close.