Energy Market Briefing

Friday 9 October 2026 · Generated 10:00 BST · Past 24 hours

Oil jumped after attacks around Riyadh airport and continued Iranian action against ships in the Strait of Hormuz, even though Washington says its talks with Iran are productive and it will not attack before the 3 November midterms. UK gas and power firmed again in the nearest seasons.

UK Gas▲

NBP Sum-27 up 2.0% on the 9 October Market Table

UK Power▲

Sum-27 up 1.8%, following gas

EU Storage▲

73.1% full, 16.8pp under norm

Market bias

Firm, upside riskSofter · Firmer

Gulf supply risk and thin EU storage support prices, with the nearest seasons leading.

UK gas Sum-27

5.07p/kWh

+2.0% on the 9 Oct Market Table

UK power Sum-27

11.71p/kWh

+1.8% on the 9 Oct Market Table

EU gas storage

73.1% full

16.8pp below 5yr norm

TTF prompt

78.00EUR/MWh

-0.7% vs 8 Oct close

Brent crude

104.28$/bbl

+4.1% vs 8 Oct close

Today's headlines

1 · GEOPOLITICS
Attacks on Riyadh airport and Iranian night-time action against ships in Hormuz lifted oil and kept Gulf supply fears high.
Riyadh airport attacked
Saudi Civil Aviation Authority says King Khalid International Airport was hit twice on Thursday, killing three Saudi citizens, and Yemen's Houthis claimed a ballistic missile strike that set a parked Saudia aircraft on fire (market news email, 9 October). Air India and Lufthansa have suspended flights to Riyadh.
Hormuz still contested
An IRGC Navy political deputy said Iranian forces are carrying out operations every night in the Strait of Hormuz against vessels Tehran considers to be breaking its rules (market news email, 9 October). I could not confirm a current LNG flow count through the strait, so the level of Qatari exports is unconfirmed.
Oil reacts
Brent was 104.28 $/bbl in the 9 October morning reading, up 4.1% from 100.20 at the 8 October close (LSEG Market Data, 9 October). TTF prompt was 78.00 EUR/MWh, 0.7% lower than the 8 October close of 78.57.
Diplomacy and sanctions
President Trump said Washington is having productive discussions with Iran and pledged not to attack before the 3 November midterm elections. The US Treasury meanwhile sanctioned 27 companies, six individuals and 22 vessels over Iranian oil sales (market news email, 9 October).
2 · PRICES
UK gas and power firmed again in the nearest seasons, while prices further out moved more gently.
Nearest seasons lead
UK gas rose 1.97% for Sum-27 to 5.07 p/kWh and 1.70% for Win-27 to 4.86 p/kWh. UK power rose 1.77% for Sum-27 to 11.71 p/kWh and 1.71% for Win-27 to 11.75 p/kWh (Market Table email, 9 October).
Further out
UK gas gained 1.25% for Sum-28 to 3.09 p/kWh and 1.31% for Win-28 to 3.31 p/kWh, while Win-29 eased 0.25% to 2.79 p/kWh. UK power rose between 0.49% and 0.68% across Sum-28 to Win-29.
EU gas storage
EU storage was 73.1% full on 7 October against a five-year norm of 89.9% for this date, a gap of 16.8pp. The winter 2026/27 target is 90% of capacity by 1 December, with Commission flexibility down to 80%.
3 · GENERATION
Strong wind supplied about half of Britain's power this morning, leaving gas-fired plants to meet roughly a ninth of demand.
Wind dominates
Wind supplied 16.62 GW, 51.8% of the 32.10 GW of demand, at 09:40 BST on 9 October (GridWatch).
Gas plant is a minor player
Gas-fired generation produced 3.68 GW, about 11.5% of demand, so strong wind is limiting how much UK power prices are tied to gas on the day.
Rest of the mix
Nuclear delivered 4.02 GW and solar 1.28 GW. Interconnectors were a net 2.36 GW import, led by 3.88 GW from France, with net exports to Ireland and Norway.

Forward curve & seasonal movesi

UK powerUK gas NBPmonthly forward, p/kWh · market close on 8 October 2026

8 Oct 2026

Season	Power	Δ	Gas	Δ
Sum-27	11.71	+1.77%	5.07	+1.97%
Win-27	11.75	+1.71%	4.86	+1.70%
Sum-28	7.71	+0.59%	3.09	+1.25%
Win-28	8.39	+0.49%	3.31	+1.31%
Sum-29	7.12	+0.68%	2.52	+1.03%
Win-29	7.80	+0.50%	2.79	-0.25%

Seasonal contracts in p/kWh, change is day on day, as of market close on 9 October 2026.

UK generation mixi

Wind16.62 GW51.8%

Nuclear4.02 GW12.5%

Gas (CCGT + OCGT)3.68 GW11.5%

Interconnectors2.36 GW7.4%

Solar1.28 GW4.0%

Biomass0.74 GW2.3%

Hydro + pumped0.50 GW1.6%

Other2.90 GW9.0%

As of 9 October 2026, 09:40 BST. Tap a fuel or a slice to isolate it, tap again to reset.

EU gas storagei

Now

73.1%

5yr norm

89.9%

-16.8pp vs 5yr normDashed line: 90% winter target

Winter 2026/27 target is 90% of capacity by 1 December, with Commission flexibility down to 80%. As of 7 October 2026.

Other commoditiesi

TTF▼-0.73%JKM▲+0.31%Brent▲+4.07%WTI▲+3.64%UK carbon▲+2.19%EU carbon▲+1.93%FTSE 100▼-0.16%GBPUSD▲+0.11%GBPEUR▼-0.02%Gold▲+0.57%TTF▼-0.73%JKM▲+0.31%Brent▲+4.07%WTI▲+3.64%UK carbon▲+2.19%EU carbon▲+1.93%FTSE 100▼-0.16%GBPUSD▲+0.11%GBPEUR▼-0.02%Gold▲+0.57%

Global gasiTTF▼-0.73%JKM▲+0.31%

OiliBrent▲+4.07%WTI▲+3.64%

CarboniUK carbon▲+2.19%EU carbon▲+1.93%

FTSE 100i▼-0.16%

ForexiGBPUSD▲+0.11%GBPEUR▼-0.02%

Goldi▲+0.57%

Past 6 months of daily closes. As of 8 October 2026. Change shown is the latest close against the previous close.