Energy Market Briefing

Monday 12 October 2026 · Generated 10:00 BST · Since Friday morning

Houthi missile strikes on Riyadh airport over the weekend and fresh tanker attacks around the Strait of Hormuz pushed Brent back above $105 a barrel, with Iran still rejecting Washington's response to its conditions for reopening the strait. UK gas and power firmed again in the nearest seasons at Friday's close, and EU gas storage is still well short of where it normally sits in mid-October.

UK Gas▲

Sum-27 up 1.3% at Friday's close

UK Power▲

Sum-27 up 0.8% at Friday's close, gas leading

EU Storage▼

73.6% full, 16.8pp under norm

Market bias

Firm, upside riskSofter · Firmer

Gulf attacks on airports and tankers keep a supply risk premium in oil and gas.

UK gas Sum-27

5.13p/kWh

+1.3% day-on-day

UK power Sum-27

11.80p/kWh

+0.8% day-on-day

EU gas storage

73.6% full

16.8pp below 5yr norm

TTF prompt

80.25EUR/MWh

9 October level

Brent crude

105.48$/bbl

higher in Sunday trading

Today's headlines

1 · GEOPOLITICS
Houthi missiles hit Riyadh airport again and tankers were struck near Hormuz, keeping Gulf supply fears and oil prices high.
Riyadh airport hit again
Initial reports say a Houthi missile strike on King Khalid International Airport in Riyadh on Saturday killed a number of people and injured hundreds, and a second strike on Sunday started a fire at Terminal 4 and closed the airport. Saudi authorities also confirmed that Dammam's King Fahd International Airport was targeted on Sunday evening. Casualty figures are still unconfirmed and differ between reports.
Tankers struck near Hormuz and Oman
The UK Maritime Trade Operations agency reported a tanker hit by an unidentified projectile in the Strait of Hormuz on Sunday, and the Valthera was struck earlier in the strait, with all crew safe in both cases. A drone also hit the Petro Dolphin at Sohar anchorage in Oman, where two crew remain missing.
Iran and Washington still apart
Iran's Supreme National Security Council secretary called Washington's response to Tehran's seven conditions for reopening the strait insufficient on Sunday. President Trump has said the US will not strike Iran before the 3 November midterms, but he has also been reported weighing retaliation against the Houthis.
Oil
Brent rose 0.73% to $105.48 a barrel in Sunday evening trading and gained again in early Asian trading on Monday. WTI was at $92.44 on Sunday evening.
2 · PRICES
UK gas and power firmed again in the nearest seasons at Friday's close, while prices further out barely moved.
Nearest seasons lead
At Friday 9 October's close UK gas for Sum-27 rose 1.3% to 5.13 p/kWh and UK power rose 0.8% to 11.80 p/kWh. Win-27 firmed more gently, with UK gas up 0.4% and UK power up 0.3%.
Further out
Seasons from Sum-28 onwards moved by less than 1% either way, with UK gas for Sum-29 down 0.7% and UK power for Win-28 down 0.3%. The curve is still steeply downward, with UK power for Sum-28 at 7.72 p/kWh against 11.80 p/kWh for Sum-27.
Prompt gas
TTF prompt was around 80.25 EUR/MWh on 9 October and UK NBP prompt around 6.81 p/kWh, both higher on the day as tanker attacks in the Gulf raised the risk to LNG supply. Monday's market table will not update these figures until the next close.
Prices shown
Seasonal figures are the market close on 9 October. Win-26 has started delivery so it is no longer shown as a forward price.
3 · STORAGE
EU gas storage is still about 74% full, well below where it normally sits in mid-October.
Where storage stands
EU gas storage was 73.6% full on 10 October, 16.8pp below the five-year norm of 90.4% for 12 October. That is a wide gap for the point in the year when injections normally slow.
Target
The winter 2026/27 filling target is 90% of capacity by 1 December, with Commission flexibility allowing member states to reduce it to a minimum of 80%. Reaching even 80% needs steady injections through the next seven weeks.
Why it matters
A shortfall against the norm leaves EU and UK gas more exposed to any new supply disruption, which is relevant while LNG shipping and Gulf supply risks remain elevated.

Forward curve & seasonal movesi

UK powerUK gas NBPmonthly forward, p/kWh · market close on 9 October 2026

9 Oct 2026

Season	Power	Δ	Gas	Δ
Sum-27	11.80	+0.84%	5.13	+1.29%
Win-27	11.79	+0.32%	4.88	+0.41%
Sum-28	7.72	+0.12%	3.09	-0.17%
Win-28	8.36	-0.33%	3.30	-0.15%
Sum-29	7.13	+0.17%	2.50	-0.71%
Win-29	7.83	+0.33%	2.80	+0.14%

Seasonal contracts in p/kWh, change is day on day, as of market close on 9 October 2026.

UK generation mixi

Wind11.90 GW34.1%

Gas (CCGT + OCGT)9.94 GW28.5%

Nuclear4.01 GW11.5%

Biomass2.92 GW8.4%

Interconnectors2.41 GW6.9%

Solar1.46 GW4.2%

Hydro + pumped0.58 GW1.7%

Other1.67 GW4.8%

As of 12 October 2026, 09:40 BST. Tap a fuel or a slice to isolate it, tap again to reset.

EU gas storagei

Now

73.6%

5yr norm

90.4%

-16.8pp vs 5yr normDashed line: 90% winter target

Winter 2026/27 target is 90% of capacity by 1 December, with Commission flexibility down to 80%. As of 10 October 2026.

Other commoditiesi

TTF▲+3.85%JKM▲+0.10%Brent▲+0.42%WTI▲+0.39%UK carbon▼-0.36%EU carbon▲+0.07%FTSE 100▲+1.06%GBPUSD▲+0.05%GBPEUR▲+0.10%Gold▲+1.45%TTF▲+3.85%JKM▲+0.10%Brent▲+0.42%WTI▲+0.39%UK carbon▼-0.36%EU carbon▲+0.07%FTSE 100▲+1.06%GBPUSD▲+0.05%GBPEUR▲+0.10%Gold▲+1.45%

Global gasiTTF▲+3.85%JKM▲+0.10%

OiliBrent▲+0.42%WTI▲+0.39%

CarboniUK carbon▼-0.36%EU carbon▲+0.07%

FTSE 100i▲+1.06%

ForexiGBPUSD▲+0.05%GBPEUR▲+0.10%

Goldi▲+1.45%

Past 6 months of daily closes. As of 9 October 2026. Change shown is the latest close against the previous close.