Energy Market Briefing

Tuesday 13 October 2026 · Generated 10:00 BST · Past 24 hours

Gulf shipping fears pushed UK gas and power higher across the curve at Monday's close, with Iran naming a US-backed Gulf oil shuttle as a target and more tankers reported hit. European gas is at its highest in nearly four years, while EU storage still sits well below its normal level for the time of year.

UK Gas▲
NBP Sum-27 up 1.2% at Monday's close
UK Power▲
Sum-27 up 1.8%, following gas higher
EU Storage▼
73.8% full, 16.6pp under norm
Market bias
Firm, upside riskSofter · Firmer
Tanker attacks near Hormuz and thin LNG supply are keeping gas and power bid.
UK gas Sum-27
5.19p/kWh
+1.2% day-on-day
UK power Sum-27
12.01p/kWh
+1.8% day-on-day
EU gas storage
73.8% full
16.6pp below 5yr norm
TTF prompt
84.35EUR/MWh
+4.1% on the day
Brent crude
106.65$/bbl
+1.8% on the day

Today's headlines

1 · GEOPOLITICS
Iran named a US-backed Gulf oil shuttle an explicit target as more tankers were reported hit near Hormuz.
Shuttle named as a target
Iran's security chief Mohsen Rezaei said on Sunday night that the Arab-operated, US-assisted shuttle moving oil out of the Gulf is now an explicit target, according to Al Jazeera on 12 October. He also said Iran would keep the strait under its control and threatened US-linked infrastructure in the UAE if Iranian energy sites are hit again.
Tankers reported hit overnight
Al Jazeera reports that two outbound tankers and one at anchor near Sohar in Oman were targeted overnight into Monday 12 October. The IRGC claims further strikes, but maritime authorities have not confirmed all of them, so the exact count is unclear.
Shipping still far below normal
Windward data cited by Al Jazeera put daily transits at 31 in the last week of September against 138 before the war. A separate tracker on 13 October describes the strait as effectively closed to normal commercial traffic.
Oil reaction
Brent closed at $106.65 a barrel on 12 October in the LSEG data, up 1.8% on the day. Intraday reports on Monday were mixed, so the close is the reliable guide.
2 · PRICES
UK gas and power rose across the forward curve at Monday's close, with European gas at its highest since 2022.
UK gas
UK gas (NBP) firmed by around 1% in most seasons at Monday's close. Sum-27 settled at 5.19 p/kWh (+1.2%), Win-27 at 4.93 p/kWh (+1.0%) and Sum-28 at 3.12 p/kWh (+1.0%).
UK power
UK power followed gas higher, with Sum-27 up 1.8% to 12.01 p/kWh and Win-27 up 1.3% to 11.94 p/kWh. Sum-28 rose 2.0% to 7.87 p/kWh, the biggest move on the curve.
European gas
TTF front month closed at 84.35 EUR/MWh on 12 October, up 4.1% on the day and the highest close in the six months of LSEG data. Reuters coverage via RTE says European gas has risen more than 150% in 2026.
Generation today
Wind supplied around 46% of Britain's power on the latest GridWatch reading at 09:40 BST, with gas generation near 19% and demand at 32.2 GW. The page warns its feed is partly down, so treat the mix as indicative.
3 · SUPPLY
Trapped Gulf LNG, Asian buying and a coming Russian LNG ban leave Europe short of spare supply this winter.
LNG trapped behind Hormuz
Reuters reporting carried by RTE on 12 October says shipping disruption has trapped almost 20% of global LNG exports from Qatar and the UAE. Asian buyers competing for spot cargoes have also cut what reaches Europe.
Russian LNG ban ahead
The EU's full ban on Russian LNG imports starts in January 2027, which removes another source of winter supply.
Storage background
EU gas storage was 73.8% full on 11 October against a five-year norm of 90.4% for 13 October. Analysts quoted by RTE expect 75 to 78% by 1 November, about 10 percentage points below average.
What analysts expect
Northwest European stocks could fall to around 20% by early April in an average winter, with a cold winter taking them lower. ICIS expects the conflict to ease over winter but thinks the market underprices refill demand.

Forward curve & seasonal movesi

UK powerUK gas NBPmonthly forward, p/kWh · market close on 12 October 2026
0.04.99.914.819.7202720282029203020312032
12 Oct 2026
SeasonPowerΔGasΔ
Sum-2712.01+1.78%5.19+1.17%
Win-2711.94+1.32%4.93+1.02%
Sum-287.87+1.96%3.12+1.00%
Win-288.46+1.21%3.31+0.18%
Sum-297.21+1.11%2.53+1.34%
Win-297.90+0.96%2.81+0.43%
Seasonal contracts in p/kWh, change is day on day, as of market close on 12 October 2026.

UK generation mixi

32.2GW demand
Wind14.86 GW46.1%
Gas (CCGT + OCGT)6.03 GW18.7%
Nuclear4.06 GW12.6%
Biomass2.43 GW7.5%
Solar2.00 GW6.2%
Interconnectors1.39 GW4.3%
Hydro + pumped0.94 GW2.9%
Other0.50 GW1.6%
As of 13 October 2026, 09:40 BST. Tap a fuel or a slice to isolate it, tap again to reset.

EU gas storagei

Now
73.8%
5yr norm
90.4%
-16.6pp vs 5yr normDashed line: 90% winter target
Winter 2026/27 target is 90% of capacity by 1 December, with Commission flexibility down to 80%. As of 11 October 2026.

Other commoditiesi

TTF▲+4.14%JKM▲+0.42%Brent▲+1.84%WTI▲+2.06%UK carbon▲+3.74%EU carbon▲+1.62%FTSE 100▲+0.99%GBPUSD▼-0.19%GBPEUR▲+0.25%Gold▼-0.54%TTF▲+4.14%JKM▲+0.42%Brent▲+1.84%WTI▲+2.06%UK carbon▲+3.74%EU carbon▲+1.62%FTSE 100▲+0.99%GBPUSD▼-0.19%GBPEUR▲+0.25%Gold▼-0.54%
Global gasiTTF▲+4.14%JKM▲+0.42%
30405060708090TTF (€/MWh)15202530JKM ($/MMBtu)May 26Jul 26Sep 26
OiliBrent▲+1.84%WTI▲+2.06%
708090100110120Brent ($/bbl)60708090100110WTI ($/bbl)May 26Jul 26Sep 26
CarboniUK carbon▲+3.74%EU carbon▲+1.62%
40455055606570UK carbon (£/t)7075808590EU carbon (€/t)May 26Jul 26Sep 26
FTSE 100i▲+0.99%
10,00010,20010,40010,60010,80011,000FTSE 100 (£)May 26Jul 26Sep 26
ForexiGBPUSD▼-0.19%GBPEUR▲+0.25%
1.311.321.331.341.351.361.37GBPUSD1.141.151.161.171.181.19GBPEURMay 26Jul 26Sep 26
Goldi▼-0.54%
3,8004,0004,2004,4004,6004,8005,000Gold ($/oz)May 26Jul 26Sep 26
Past 6 months of daily closes. As of 12 October 2026. Change shown is the latest close against the previous close.