Energy Market Briefing

Wednesday 14 October 2026 · Generated 10:00 BST · Past 24 hours

Fighting between Saudi Arabia and the Houthis reached Saudi oil sites overnight, keeping Gulf supply fears alive, while Iran and Oman reported an understanding on a temporary Hormuz shipping route. UK gas and power jumped again at Tuesday's close, with the nearest seasons rising most, and EU gas storage is still well short of its normal level.

UK Gas▲

NBP Sum-27 up 3.3% at Tuesday's close

UK Power▲

Sum-27 up 2.8%, following gas higher

EU Storage▼

73.9% full, 16.6pp under norm

Market bias

Firm, upside riskSofter · Firmer

Gulf attacks and thin EU storage keep a risk premium in UK gas and power, though a Hormuz route deal could ease it.

UK gas Sum-27

5.36p/kWh

+3.3% day-on-day

UK power Sum-27

12.35p/kWh

+2.8% day-on-day

EU gas storage

73.9% full

16.6pp below 5yr norm

TTF prompt

86.74EUR/MWh

+2.8% vs 12 Oct close

Brent crude

105.69$/bbl

-0.9% vs 12 Oct close

Today's headlines

1 · GEOPOLITICS
Fighting between Saudi Arabia and the Houthis reached Saudi oil sites, while Iran and Oman reported progress on a Hormuz shipping route.
Aramco building hit in Dhahran
Saudi Arabia's energy ministry says a strike caused a small fire at an Aramco building in Dhahran with no injuries, following a Houthi warning for civilians to evacuate Saudi oil sites it called legitimate targets (market news email, 14 October). A cruise missile was also intercepted over Al-Kharj in Riyadh province.
Saudi-led strikes on Yemen
The Saudi-led coalition confirmed strikes on oil sites across western Yemen on Tuesday, including Sanaa, and said it destroyed two Houthi ballistic missiles fired at the east of the kingdom. Debris fell on residential parts of Riyadh and injured four people (market news email, 14 October).
US involvement in question
The email reports at least 20 deaths in a week of Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia's main airport and says President Trump is weighing joining the Saudi-led campaign, which a Houthi official said would bring a swift and painful response. Mr Trump also accused the Houthis of attacking Saudi infrastructure to lift energy prices before the US midterms.
Iran and Oman on Hormuz
Iran's foreign ministry says it and Oman are close to establishing safe commercial shipping routes through the Strait of Hormuz after an understanding on a temporary safe passage route (market news email, 14 October). It is an Iranian claim and the detail is not yet confirmed.
Oil
Brent settled at $105.69 a barrel on Tuesday, 0.9% lower on the day, and WTI at $94.14 (Market Data close, 13 October).
2 · MARKETS
UK gas and power jumped again at Tuesday's close, with the nearest seasons rising the most.
UK gas
NBP Sum-27 closed at 5.36 p/kWh, up 3.3% on the day, and Win-27 at 5.11 p/kWh, up 3.7% (Market Table, 13 October close). Later seasons rose by 1.3% to 1.6%.
UK power
UK power Sum-27 closed at 12.35 p/kWh, up 2.8%, and Win-27 at 12.27 p/kWh, up 2.8%, with gas setting the direction. The winter just started, Win-26, was unchanged at 14.43 p/kWh.
European gas
TTF front month closed at 86.74 EUR/MWh, up 2.8% from 84.35 the session before (Market Data, 13 October). Quoted prices are for the commodity element only.
Britain's power mix this morning
Wind supplied about 23% of demand and gas about 22% at 09:40 BST on 14 October, with imports across the interconnectors contributing roughly 17% (GridWatch).
3 · STORAGE
EU gas storage is still filling slowly, about 74% full and well short of where it normally sits in mid-October.
Fill level
EU gas storage was 73.9% full on 12 October, up from 73.5% on 9 October (energiedashboard.ch, GIE AGSI data), a gain of about 0.15 percentage points a day.
Gap to normal
The five-year norm for mid-October is 90.5%, so storage sits 16.6 percentage points below where it usually is at this point in the year.
Filling target
The winter 2026/27 target is 90% of capacity by 1 December, with Commission flexibility allowing member states to go as low as 80%.

Forward curve & seasonal movesi

UK powerUK gas NBPmonthly forward, p/kWh · market close on 13 October 2026

13 Oct 2026

Season	Power	Δ	Gas	Δ
Sum-27	12.35	+2.81%	5.36	+3.30%
Win-27	12.27	+2.77%	5.11	+3.68%
Sum-28	7.97	+1.32%	3.17	+1.53%
Win-28	8.52	+0.71%	3.35	+1.31%
Sum-29	7.29	+1.11%	2.57	+1.40%
Win-29	8.00	+1.24%	2.85	+1.64%

Seasonal contracts in p/kWh, change is day on day, as of market close on 13 October 2026.

UK generation mixi

Wind7.39 GW22.6%

Gas (CCGT + OCGT)7.31 GW22.4%

Interconnectors5.46 GW16.7%

Nuclear4.25 GW13.0%

Solar3.44 GW10.5%

Biomass2.90 GW8.9%

Hydro + pumped0.81 GW2.5%

Other1.11 GW3.4%

As of 14 October 2026, 09:40 BST. Tap a fuel or a slice to isolate it, tap again to reset.

EU gas storagei

Now

73.9%

5yr norm

90.5%

-16.6pp vs 5yr normDashed line: 90% winter target

Winter 2026/27 target is 90% of capacity by 1 December, with Commission flexibility down to 80%. As of 12 October 2026.

Other commoditiesi

TTF▲+2.83%JKM▲+0.69%Brent▼-0.90%WTI▲+0.43%UK carbon▼-0.86%EU carbon▼-0.32%FTSE 100▼-0.06%GBPUSD▲+0.35%GBPEUR▼-0.13%Gold▼-0.34%TTF▲+2.83%JKM▲+0.69%Brent▼-0.90%WTI▲+0.43%UK carbon▼-0.86%EU carbon▼-0.32%FTSE 100▼-0.06%GBPUSD▲+0.35%GBPEUR▼-0.13%Gold▼-0.34%

Global gasiTTF▲+2.83%JKM▲+0.69%

OiliBrent▼-0.90%WTI▲+0.43%

CarboniUK carbon▼-0.86%EU carbon▼-0.32%

FTSE 100i▼-0.06%

ForexiGBPUSD▲+0.35%GBPEUR▼-0.13%

Goldi▼-0.34%

Past 6 months of daily closes. As of 13 October 2026. Change shown is the latest close against the previous close.