Energy Market Briefing

Thursday 15 October 2026 · Generated 10:00 BST · Past 24 hours

The Iran war escalated again around the Strait of Hormuz and Saudi Arabia, even as President Trump said it will end very soon, keeping Brent above $106 a barrel. UK gas and power firmed again at Wednesday's close, led by the nearest seasons, and EU gas storage is still well short of its normal level.

UK Gas▲
NBP Sum-27 up 1.6% at Wednesday's close
UK Power▲
Sum-27 up 1.2%, following gas higher
EU Storage▼
74.0% full, 16.5pp under norm
Market bias
Firm, upside riskSofter · Firmer
Shipping attacks near Hormuz and thin EU storage keep a risk premium in UK gas and power, though talk of a quick end to the war could ease it.
UK gas Sum-27
5.45p/kWh
+1.6% day-on-day
UK power Sum-27
12.49p/kWh
+1.2% day-on-day
EU gas storage
74.0% full
16.5pp below 5yr norm
TTF prompt
86.96EUR/MWh
+0.3% vs 13 Oct close
Brent crude
106.06$/bbl
+0.4% vs 13 Oct close

Today's headlines

1 · GEOPOLITICS
The Iran war widened with a ship sunk near Hormuz and Houthi missiles at Riyadh, while President Trump said it will end very soon.
Ship sunk near Hormuz
A Singapore-flagged container ship, the GFS Pride, sank after a projectile strike near the Strait of Hormuz, and a second vessel was reported lost to a sea mine, as ongoing attacks slow maritime traffic (market news email, 15 October).
Saudi Arabia targeted
Saudi Arabia intercepted a Houthi ballistic missile aimed at Riyadh amid threats against oil facilities, airports and shipping, and the email says Saudi Aramco's headquarters suffered extensive damage (market news email, 15 October).
Mixed signals on talks
President Trump said the Iran war would end very soon, whenever he decides, while Iran's vice president said any talks need approval from its top security body and the Supreme Leader. Iran's parliament speaker said Tehran will keep fighting until Washington accepts its demands (market news email, 15 October).
Why it matters
Brent settled at $106.06 a barrel on Wednesday, 0.4% higher on the day, and WTI at $95.09 (Market Data close, 14 October). Shipping risk in the Gulf is the main channel for a premium in UK gas and power.
2 · MARKETS
UK gas and power firmed again at Wednesday's close, with the nearest seasons rising most and wind covering about two fifths of Britain's power this morning.
UK gas
NBP Sum-27 closed at 5.45 p/kWh, up 1.6% on the day, and Win-27 at 5.19 p/kWh, up 1.7% (Market Table, 14 October close). Later seasons rose by 0.2% to 1.2%.
UK power
UK power Sum-27 closed at 12.49 p/kWh, up 1.2%, and Win-27 at 12.46 p/kWh, up 1.5%, with gas setting the direction. Sum-29 and Win-29 eased by 0.8% and 0.6%.
European gas
TTF front month closed at 86.96 EUR/MWh, up 0.3% from 86.74 the session before (Market Data, 14 October). Quoted prices are for the commodity element only.
Britain's power mix this morning
Wind supplied about 40% of demand at 09:40 BST on 15 October, with nuclear about 14%, gas about 12% and imports across the interconnectors about 12% (GridWatch). Strong wind is holding back gas burn for power today.
3 · OIL & FUELS
The IEA warned diesel shortages could last into 2027 as record tanker rates add to fuel and energy cost pressure.
Diesel shortages
The IEA warned diesel shortages could persist into 2027 (market news email, 15 October).
Record tanker rates
Record tanker rates have pushed Asian refinery margins into negative territory, adding to pressure on energy prices and the wider economy (market news email, 15 October).
Oil price level
Brent topped $106 a barrel, and the Market Data close on 14 October was $106.06, with WTI at $95.09. UK gas and power are priced separately, but a higher oil and shipping risk premium tends to spill over.
Storage backdrop
EU gas storage was 74.0% full on 13 October against a five-year norm of 90.5% for mid-October, 16.5 percentage points short (energiedashboard.ch, GIE AGSI data). The winter 2026/27 target is 90% of capacity by 1 December, with Commission flexibility down to 80%.

Forward curve & seasonal movesi

UK powerUK gas NBPmonthly forward, p/kWh · market close on 14 October 2026
0.05.110.215.320.4202720282029203020312032
14 Oct 2026
SeasonPowerΔGasΔ
Sum-2712.49+1.17%5.45+1.58%
Win-2712.46+1.52%5.19+1.67%
Sum-288.00+0.31%3.20+1.18%
Win-288.54+0.21%3.36+0.29%
Sum-297.23-0.81%2.57+0.18%
Win-297.96-0.60%2.87+0.61%
Seasonal contracts in p/kWh, change is day on day, as of market close on 14 October 2026.

UK generation mixi

32.2GW demand
Wind12.93 GW40.1%
Nuclear4.39 GW13.6%
Interconnectors4.00 GW12.4%
Gas (CCGT + OCGT)3.96 GW12.3%
Biomass2.25 GW7.0%
Solar1.59 GW4.9%
Hydro + pumped1.05 GW3.3%
Other2.08 GW6.4%
As of 15 October 2026, 09:40 BST. Tap a fuel or a slice to isolate it, tap again to reset.

EU gas storagei

Now
74.0%
5yr norm
90.5%
-16.5pp vs 5yr normDashed line: 90% winter target
Winter 2026/27 target is 90% of capacity by 1 December, with Commission flexibility down to 80%. As of 13 October 2026.

Other commoditiesi

TTF▲+0.25%JKM▲+0.44%Brent▲+0.35%WTI▲+1.01%UK carbon▼-1.25%EU carbon▼-1.05%FTSE 100▲+0.70%GBPUSD▼-0.46%GBPEUR▲+0.03%Gold▼-1.24%TTF▲+0.25%JKM▲+0.44%Brent▲+0.35%WTI▲+1.01%UK carbon▼-1.25%EU carbon▼-1.05%FTSE 100▲+0.70%GBPUSD▼-0.46%GBPEUR▲+0.03%Gold▼-1.24%
Global gasiTTF▲+0.25%JKM▲+0.44%
30405060708090TTF (€/MWh)15202530JKM ($/MMBtu)May 26Jul 26Sep 26
OiliBrent▲+0.35%WTI▲+1.01%
708090100110120Brent ($/bbl)60708090100110WTI ($/bbl)May 26Jul 26Sep 26
CarboniUK carbon▼-1.25%EU carbon▼-1.05%
455055606570UK carbon (£/t)7075808590EU carbon (€/t)May 26Jul 26Sep 26
FTSE 100i▲+0.70%
10,00010,20010,40010,60010,80011,000FTSE 100 (£)May 26Jul 26Sep 26
ForexiGBPUSD▼-0.46%GBPEUR▲+0.03%
1.311.321.331.341.351.361.37GBPUSD1.141.151.161.171.181.19GBPEURMay 26Jul 26Sep 26
Goldi▼-1.24%
3,8004,0004,2004,4004,6004,8005,000Gold ($/oz)May 26Jul 26Sep 26
Past 6 months of daily closes. As of 14 October 2026. Change shown is the latest close against the previous close.