Energy Market Briefing

A process problem at Kårstø is curtailing about 12.6 mcm/day and a fresh unplanned reduction at Kristin removes another 5.6 mcm/day, taking Norwegian exit nominations to around 330 mcm/day, and Vesterled and FLAGS deliveries to the UK dropped to zero (Prestige Business Solutions market report, 15 October).

UK LNG sendout is steady but low at roughly 8 mcm/day across Isle of Grain and South Hook, and only two cargoes have berthed at UK terminals since the start of October, nine fewer than at the same point last year (same report).

Mild weather and a technical unwind left UK gas day-ahead flat at about 7.13 p/kWh on Wednesday, while forward seasons rose at Thursday's close: UK gas Sum-27 closed at 5.51 p/kWh, up 1.1%, and Win-27 at 5.26 p/kWh, up 1.3% (Market Table, 15 October close). Sum-27 now trades above Win-27, a sign the market is worried about refilling storage.

EU gas storage was 74.1%% full on 14 October against a five-year norm of 90.6%%, 16.5 percentage points short. Forecasts turn to about 1.8C below normal by 27 October, which would lift heating demand. The winter 2026/27 target is 90%% of capacity by 1 December, with Commission flexibility down to 80%%.

TTF front month closed at 86.69 EUR/MWh on 15 October, down 0.3% from 86.96 the session before (Market Data). Quoted prices are for the commodity element only.

A container ship and a dry bulk carrier both sank near the Strait of Hormuz in the 24 hours to Wednesday after being hit by projectiles, and attacks around the waterway have surged over the past 10 days as Iran steps up strikes in response to the US blockade of its ports (Reuters via The Irish Times, 15 October).

A US official said the administration is considering allowing oil to flow on previously sanctioned shadow-fleet vessels to cut record freight costs, which is the main new development on the price side (same report).

Houthi forces attacked an administrative building belonging to Saudi Aramco in Dhahran, causing a limited fire, and have fired ballistic missiles and drones at Saudi Arabia over the past week (Reuters via RTE, 14 October).

The IEA said Middle East Gulf crude exports rose 4.4 million bpd in September to about 75% of prewar levels. President Trump said the Iran war will end very soon, while Iran says talks need approval from its top security body (market news email, 15 October).

Brent closed at 105.92 $/bbl on 15 October, down 0.1% on the day, and WTI at 97.97 $/bbl, up 3.1% (Market Data). UK gas and power are priced separately, but an oil and shipping risk premium tends to spill over.

At 09:40 BST on 16 October demand was 33.60 GW. Gas supplied 8.80 GW (26.2%), net imports 6.37 GW (19.0%), wind 5.43 GW (16.2%), nuclear 4.59 GW (13.7%), biomass 3.13 GW (9.3%) and solar 2.52 GW (7.5%) (GridWatch).

Two Heysham units are fully offline on planned work, with further unplanned derates at Heysham and Hartlepool, and Nordic nuclear availability was reported at 51% (Prestige Business Solutions market report, 15 October).

UK power Sum-27 closed at 12.55 p/kWh, up 0.4%, and Win-27 at 12.52 p/kWh, up 0.5%, with gas setting the direction. Win-29 eased 0.3% (Market Table, 15 October close).

UK day-ahead baseload settled at about 14.92 p/kWh on Wednesday, 0.34 p/kWh lower, with the intraday price running from about 2.53 p/kWh in the solar-heavy late morning to about 29.80 p/kWh over the late afternoon ramp (Prestige report, 15 October). Wind is expected to hold steady before easing over the weekend.