Energy Market Briefing

Iran's Revolutionary Guard said two oil tankers, each carrying about two million barrels, hit mines in the Strait of Hormuz on Saturday and caught fire, claiming they had switched off tracking and used an unauthorised route. The account is Iranian and had no independent confirmation (Al Jazeera, 18 October).

Six vessels were attacked in or near the strait last Sunday, the most in a single day since the war began, and Kpler data showed about 2.9 million barrels of oil passing on 11 October against nearly 20.8 million on 8 October (Al Jazeera, 18 October). Iran says it is stepping up strikes in response to the US blockade of its ports.

US embassies in 12 Middle Eastern countries have warned Americans of potential threats from Iran and the Houthis, and Iran is signalling it is preparing for another round of war, with threats to regional oil and gas facilities (market news email, 19 October). President Trump has said he expects a deal to end the war after the 3 November US midterms (Al Jazeera, 18 October).

Brent closed at 109.86 $/bbl on 16 October, up 3.7% from 105.92, and WTI at 101.41 $/bbl, up 3.5% (Market Data). Danske Research reported Brent opening lower near 108 $/bbl this morning after President Trump waived key sanctions and tariffs on Russia, though it stressed supply risks stay elevated (Danske via Mitrade, 19 October).

UK gas rose across every season shown at the 16 October close: Sum-27 closed at 5.61 p/kWh, up 1.7%, Win-27 at 5.32 p/kWh, up 1.2%, Sum-28 at 3.32 p/kWh, up 1.4% and Win-28 at 3.48 p/kWh, up 1.6% (Market Table). Quoted prices are for the commodity element only.

TTF front month closed at 87.72 EUR/MWh on 16 October, up 1.2%% from 86.69, while Asian LNG (JKM) jumped 12.8%% to 29.93 $/MMBtu (Market Data). The European move is background for UK readers, who follow NBP.

In Thursday's session Norwegian output held at 330.5 mcm/day despite within-day outages at Kristin and Kårstø, and UK day-ahead NBP settled at 7.17 p/kWh, up 0.03 p/kWh. A further 25 to 32 mcm/day of Norwegian reductions was expected later this week, and Ukrainian strikes on Russian refining add to the geopolitical layer while pipeline gas remains undisrupted (Prestige Business Solutions market report, 16 October). We have no confirmed Friday or Monday prompt settlement.

EU gas storage was 74.5% full on 17 October against a five-year norm of 90.8%, 16.3 percentage points short. The winter 2026/27 target is 90% of capacity by 1 December, with Commission flexibility down to 80% (Energie Dashboard, GIE data).

At 09:40 BST demand was 36.28 GW. Gas supplied 12.55 GW (34.6%), wind 7.71 GW (21.3%), nuclear 4.87 GW (13.4%), biomass 3.08 GW (8.5%), solar 1.80 GW (5.0%) and net interconnector imports 2.30 GW (6.3%) (GridWatch).

UK power rose across the curve: Sum-27 closed at 12.74 p/kWh, up 1.5%, Win-27 at 12.63 p/kWh, up 0.8%, Sum-28 at 8.07 p/kWh, up 0.8% and Win-29 at 7.95 p/kWh, up 0.2% (Market Table, 16 October close).

UK day-ahead baseload settled at 17.47 p/kWh in Thursday's session, up 2.55 p/kWh, as wind's share of generation fell from about 55% to about 44% and two Heysham units stayed offline with other nuclear units derated. Day-ahead was offered at 14.85 p/kWh on Friday morning as wind recovered (Prestige Business Solutions market report, 16 October).