Energy Market Briefing

Brent closed at 109.55 $/bbl on 19 October, down 0.3% from 109.86, while WTI rose to 103.66 $/bbl from 101.41 (Market Data). Brent slipped about 2% early on Monday after Trump's 16 October order suspended sanctions and tariffs on Russia, then rebounded and traded near 110 $/bbl in early Asian trading on Tuesday (Mansfield Energy and FinanceFeeds, 19 and 20 October).

Analysts said the waiver does little to address Gulf supply, with Kpler putting crude flows through the Gulf at about 8.5 million barrels a day last week against more than 20 million the week before (Mansfield Energy, 19 October). Rubio said Washington could take up to 60 days to assess the economic consequences of the waiver.

US embassies in 12 Middle Eastern countries have warned Americans of threats from Iran and the Houthis, and Iran has signalled it is preparing for another round of war with the US, with threats to regional oil and gas facilities (market news email, 19 October). This is the risk that keeps a premium in oil and gas, and it has not eased.

UK gas rose in every season shown at the 19 October close: Sum-27 at 5.68 p/kWh, up 1.3%, Win-27 at 5.38 p/kWh, up 1.1%, Sum-28 at 3.37 p/kWh, up 1.6% and Win-28 at 3.54 p/kWh, up 1.9%. The back of the curve gained most, with Sum-29 at 2.67 p/kWh, up 2.3% (Market Table, 20 October). Quoted prices are for the commodity element only.

UK power Sum-27 closed at 12.80 p/kWh, up 0.5%, Win-27 at 12.70 p/kWh, up 0.6% and Sum-28 at 8.19 p/kWh, up 1.5%. The far seasons barely moved, with Sum-29 up 0.1% (Market Table, 20 October).

TTF front month closed at 88.08 EUR/MWh on 19 October, up 0.4% from 87.72, and Asian LNG (JKM) edged up to 30.01 $/MMBtu from 29.93 (Market Data). TTF is background for UK readers, who follow NBP.

Wind supplied 13.17 GW, about 37% of the 36.01 GW of demand, with gas generation at 9.74 GW or 27% and nuclear at 4.93 GW (GridWatch, 09:40 BST on 20 October). Net imports through the interconnectors added about 3 GW.

EU gas storage was 74.6% full on 18 October against a five-year norm of 90.9%, which is 16.3 percentage points short (Energie Dashboard, GIE data; norm from the Drive EU Gas Storage sheet). The winter 2026/27 target is 90% of capacity by 1 December, with Commission flexibility down to 80%.

Storage rose from 73.7% on 10 October to 74.6% on 18 October, about 0.1 percentage points a day. At that pace it would reach roughly 79 to 80% by 1 December, around the flexibility floor and well short of 90%, which would need about 0.35 points a day.

Germany was 61.1% full on 18 October, against 87.7% in France and 89.9% in Italy (Energie Dashboard, GIE data). Germany's lag is the main drag on the EU average.