Energy Market Briefing

Wednesday 21 October 2026 · Generated 10:00 BST · Past 24 hours

UK gas and power eased at Tuesday's close as traders took profits after European gas touched its highest level since 2022. Oil stayed near five-month highs because Gulf shipping remains disrupted, and a US easing of some Russia energy sanctions has not changed that.

UK Gas▼
NBP seasons down about 1.5% to 2.9% at Tuesday's close
UK Power▼
Followed gas lower, down 0.6% to 2.0% across seasons
EU Storage▼
74.6% full, 16.4pp under the 5yr norm
Market bias
Firm, profit-taking pullbackSofter · Firmer
Gulf shipping risk and low EU storage keep prices high, but profit-taking pulled the curve back at the last close.
UK gas Sum-27
5.52p/kWh
-2.9% day-on-day
UK power Sum-27
12.55p/kWh
-2.0% day-on-day
EU gas storage
74.6% full
16.4pp below 5yr norm
TTF prompt
86.65EUR/MWh
-1.6% on the day
Brent crude
109.29$/bbl
slightly lower on the day

Today's headlines

1 · GEOPOLITICS
Gulf shipping disruption keeps oil near five-month highs, with tanker attacks and mines still limiting flows through the Strait of Hormuz.
Oil holds near five-month highs
Brent closed around 109 $/bbl on Tuesday, little changed on the day, after touching about 111 $/bbl earlier in the week. WTI is near 100 $/bbl.
Strait of Hormuz still restricted
Tanker attacks and mines continue to limit flows, and one report says a tanker carrying about 2 million barrels caught fire after hitting a mine. Kpler data showed transits of about 11.6 million barrels a day in the week to 13 October, against a pre-war level of about 17.2 million.
Diplomacy on the table
Iran's foreign minister says Tehran's proposal to reopen the strait within six days, if US conditions are met, remains on the table. Nothing has been agreed, so the physical risk stays.
2 · GAS
UK gas and power eased as traders took profits after European gas touched its highest level since 2022.
UK gas lower at the close
At Tuesday's close UK gas fell across every season shown, by between 1.5% and 2.9%. The Sum-27 contract fell 2.9% to 5.52 p/kWh and Win-27 fell 2.1% to 5.27 p/kWh.
UK power followed
UK power fell by less, between 0.6% and 2.0%. Sum-27 power closed at 12.55 p/kWh and Win-27 at 12.53 p/kWh.
Profit-taking after the peak
Dutch TTF reached about 90 EUR/MWh intraday on Tuesday, its highest since 2022, before reversing and closing around 86.65 EUR/MWh, down 1.6%. Traders cited profit-taking and a slightly softer oil price. Prices remain more than double their pre-conflict level.
UK generation this morning
At 09:40 BST demand was 35.18 GW. Wind supplied 26.7% and gas 25.7%, with nuclear at 14.1% and net interconnector imports at 18.4%. The Elexon website was reported down, so GridWatch figures may lag.
3 · POLICY
The US has eased some Russia energy sanctions for up to 60 days, but analysts say this does little for Gulf supply.
US waiver on Russia energy sanctions
An executive order issued on Friday waived some Russia-related energy sanctions, including penalties for buying Russian oil and gas. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said the administration will take up to 60 days to assess the economic impact, so it could be reversed.
Limited effect on Gulf supply
Oil fell on Monday and Tuesday on hopes of extra Russian supply, but several analysts say the waiver does not fix the physical problem in Hormuz and see it as a move to hold down fuel prices ahead of the US midterms.
Ukraine strikes an oil terminal
Ukraine has hit an oil terminal in St Petersburg, and President Zelenskyy has criticised the waiver, so Russian supply remains uncertain.
EU gas storage still refilling slowly
EU storage was 74.6% full on 19 October, still 16.4pp below the 5yr norm. Winter 2026/27 target is 90% of capacity by 1 December, with flexibility down to 80%.

Forward curve & seasonal movesi

UK powerUK gas NBPmonthly forward, p/kWh · market close on 20 October 2026
0.05.110.215.320.4202720282029203020312032
20 Oct 2026
SeasonPowerΔGasΔ
Sum-2712.55-1.95%5.52-2.88%
Win-2712.53-1.36%5.27-2.09%
Sum-288.03-1.88%3.31-1.80%
Win-288.68-0.57%3.49-1.49%
Sum-297.25-0.55%2.61-2.15%
Win-297.86-1.35%2.88-2.01%
Seasonal contracts in p/kWh, change is day on day, as of market close on 20 October 2026.

UK generation mixi

35.2GW demand
Wind9.38 GW26.7%
Gas (CCGT + OCGT)9.03 GW25.7%
Interconnectors6.47 GW18.4%
Nuclear4.95 GW14.1%
Biomass3.20 GW9.1%
Solar0.87 GW2.5%
Hydro + pumped0.71 GW2.0%
Other0.57 GW1.6%
As of 21 October 2026, 09:40 BST. Tap a fuel or a slice to isolate it, tap again to reset.

EU gas storagei

Now
74.6%
5yr norm
91.0%
-16.4pp vs 5yr normDashed line: 90% winter target
Winter 2026/27 target is 90% of capacity by 1 December, with Commission flexibility down to 80%. As of 19 October 2026.

Other commoditiesi

TTF▼-2.62%JKM▼-1.53%Brent▼-0.69%WTI▼-1.80%UK carbon▲+0.40%EU carbon▲+0.26%FTSE 100▼-0.29%GBPUSD▲+0.57%GBPEUR▲+0.34%Gold▼-0.37%TTF▼-2.62%JKM▼-1.53%Brent▼-0.69%WTI▼-1.80%UK carbon▲+0.40%EU carbon▲+0.26%FTSE 100▼-0.29%GBPUSD▲+0.57%GBPEUR▲+0.34%Gold▼-0.37%
Global gasiTTF▼-2.62%JKM▼-1.53%
30405060708090TTF (€/MWh)1520253035JKM ($/MMBtu)May 26Jul 26Sep 26
OiliBrent▼-0.69%WTI▼-1.80%
708090100110120Brent ($/bbl)60708090100110WTI ($/bbl)May 26Jul 26Sep 26
CarboniUK carbon▲+0.40%EU carbon▲+0.26%
455055606570UK carbon (£/t)7075808590EU carbon (€/t)May 26Jul 26Sep 26
FTSE 100i▼-0.29%
10,00010,20010,40010,60010,80011,000FTSE 100 (£)May 26Jul 26Sep 26
ForexiGBPUSD▲+0.57%GBPEUR▲+0.34%
1.311.321.331.341.351.361.37GBPUSD1.141.151.161.171.181.191.20GBPEURMay 26Jul 26Sep 26
Goldi▼-0.37%
3,8004,0004,2004,4004,6004,8005,000Gold ($/oz)May 26Jul 26Sep 26
Past 6 months of daily closes. As of 20 October 2026. Change shown is the latest close against the previous close.