Energy Market Briefing

Thursday 22 October 2026 · Generated 10:00 BST · Past 24 hours

Iran's Revolutionary Guard has threatened US bases and says mines and strikes hit more ships near the Strait of Hormuz, while Washington denies it is negotiating. UK gas and power rebounded at Wednesday's close, reversing Tuesday's profit-taking, with nearer seasons rising most.

UK Gas▲
NBP seasons up 1.5% to 4.2% at Wednesday's close
UK Power▲
Followed gas higher, up 0.4% to 3.7% across seasons
EU Storage•
74.6% full, 16.4pp under the 5yr norm
Market bias
Firm, upside riskSofter · Firmer
Gulf shipping risk and thin EU storage keep a premium in prices, and gas rebounded at the last close.
UK gas Sum-27
5.75p/kWh
+4.2% day-on-day
UK power Sum-27
13.01p/kWh
+3.7% day-on-day
EU gas storage
74.6% full
16.4pp below 5yr norm
TTF prompt
87.95EUR/MWh
+3.1% on Wednesday
Brent crude
108.82$/bbl
little changed on the day

Today's headlines

1 · GEOPOLITICS
Iran's Revolutionary Guard threatens US bases and reports more ships hit near Hormuz, while Washington denies negotiating but says an outcome is coming soon.
Threat to US bases
The Revolutionary Guard has threatened to extend confrontation to US bases in the region if Washington keeps urging vessels to pass through what it calls mined waterways illegally (market news email, 22 October).
More ships hit
The Guard says its navy has struck four ships involved in oil transfers in the Gulf, and that three other vessels caught fire after hitting mines near the Strait of Hormuz. These are Iranian claims and have not been independently confirmed.
Washington's position
President Trump denies conducting negotiations with Tehran, saying an outcome will happen fairly soon. With one side denying talks and the other threatening escalation, the physical risk to Gulf oil and LNG flows stays live.
Oil
Brent closed at 108.82 $/bbl on Wednesday, up 3 cents, and WTI settled at 97.15 $/bbl, down 67 cents (CNBC, 21 October). Oil has been near five-month highs this week.
2 · GAS
UK gas and power rebounded at Wednesday's close, with nearer seasons rising most as Tuesday's profit-taking reversed.
UK gas rebounds
At Wednesday's close UK gas rose across every season shown, by between 1.5% and 4.2%. Sum-27 rose 4.2% to 5.75 p/kWh and Win-27 rose 3.9% to 5.48 p/kWh.
UK power followed
UK power rose by less, between 0.4% and 3.7%. Sum-27 power closed at 13.01 p/kWh and Win-27 at 12.88 p/kWh.
Profit-taking reversed
Tuesday's close saw UK gas fall between 1.5% and 2.9% on profit-taking, so Wednesday's rise more than reverses it in the nearer seasons, while Sum-29 and Win-29 are still slightly below where they were before that fall.
TTF
Dutch TTF was reported up 3.1% at about 87.95 EUR/MWh on Wednesday, close to its highest since 2022 after briefly touching 90 EUR/MWh on Tuesday. Persian Gulf shipping disruption and low regional storage were the reasons given.
Storage background
EU gas storage was 74.6% full on 20 October, 16.4pp below the 5yr norm of 91.0%. The winter 2026/27 target is 90% of capacity by 1 December, with Commission flexibility down to 80%. Storage is still refilling slowly relative to previous years.
3 · POWER
Imports and wind supplied nearly half of Britain's power this morning, with gas-fired generation at about a sixth.
Generation this morning
At 09:40 BST on 22 October demand was 35.70 GW. Wind supplied 25.3% (9.04 GW), net interconnector imports about 19.7% (7.02 GW) and gas-fired generation 17.0% (6.07 GW), with nuclear at 13.9%.
Imports
Imports were led by France at 2.99 GW, followed by Viking at 1.43 GW, Norway at 1.40 GW, Nemo at 1.02 GW and the Netherlands at 0.96 GW, while Ireland and the East-West link were exporting.
Forward power
UK power for Sum-27 closed at 13.01 p/kWh, up 3.7%, and the move tracked gas higher. Because gas sets the marginal price, power forwards stay sensitive to the Gulf headlines even when the wind is strong.
LNG and Europe
Reports say some LNG carriers are being rerouted around Africa because of the threats near Hormuz, lengthening voyages and delaying spot cargoes into Europe. This is background from press reports rather than a confirmed same-day event.

Forward curve & seasonal movesi

UK powerUK gas NBPmonthly forward, p/kWh · market close on 21 October 2026
0.05.110.215.320.4202720282029203020312032
21 Oct 2026
SeasonPowerΔGasΔ
Sum-2713.01+3.70%5.75+4.17%
Win-2712.88+2.79%5.48+3.91%
Sum-288.23+2.49%3.41+3.22%
Win-288.77+1.06%3.57+2.38%
Sum-297.28+0.36%2.65+1.69%
Win-297.90+0.50%2.92+1.51%
Seasonal contracts in p/kWh, change is day on day, as of market close on 21 October 2026.

UK generation mixi

35.7GW demand
Wind9.04 GW25.3%
Interconnectors7.02 GW19.7%
Gas (CCGT + OCGT)6.07 GW17.0%
Nuclear4.97 GW13.9%
Biomass3.23 GW9.0%
Solar2.70 GW7.6%
Hydro + pumped0.81 GW2.3%
Other1.86 GW5.2%
As of 22 October 2026, 09:40 BST. Tap a fuel or a slice to isolate it, tap again to reset.

EU gas storagei

Now
74.6%
5yr norm
91.0%
-16.4pp vs 5yr normDashed line: 90% winter target
Winter 2026/27 target is 90% of capacity by 1 December, with Commission flexibility down to 80%. As of 20 October 2026.

Other commoditiesi

TTF▲+1.10%JKM▲+1.73%Brent▲+0.03%WTI▼-4.56%UK carbon▲+0.84%EU carbon▲+0.28%FTSE 100▲+0.19%GBPUSD▲+0.12%GBPEUR▲+0.13%Gold▲+0.39%TTF▲+1.10%JKM▲+1.73%Brent▲+0.03%WTI▼-4.56%UK carbon▲+0.84%EU carbon▲+0.28%FTSE 100▲+0.19%GBPUSD▲+0.12%GBPEUR▲+0.13%Gold▲+0.39%
Global gasiTTF▲+1.10%JKM▲+1.73%
405060708090TTF (€/MWh)1520253035JKM ($/MMBtu)May 26Jul 26Sep 26
OiliBrent▲+0.03%WTI▼-4.56%
708090100110120Brent ($/bbl)60708090100110WTI ($/bbl)May 26Jul 26Sep 26
CarboniUK carbon▲+0.84%EU carbon▲+0.28%
455055606570UK carbon (£/t)7075808590EU carbon (€/t)May 26Jul 26Sep 26
FTSE 100i▲+0.19%
10,00010,20010,40010,60010,80011,000FTSE 100 (£)May 26Jul 26Sep 26
ForexiGBPUSD▲+0.12%GBPEUR▲+0.13%
1.311.321.331.341.351.361.37GBPUSD1.141.151.161.171.181.191.20GBPEURMay 26Jul 26Sep 26
Goldi▲+0.39%
3,8004,0004,2004,4004,6004,800Gold ($/oz)May 26Jul 26Sep 26
Past 6 months of daily closes. As of 21 October 2026. Change shown is the latest close against the previous close.