Energy Market Briefing

Iran's Revolutionary Guard said its navy struck four ships involved in oil transfers in the Gulf and that three more caught fire after hitting mines near the Strait of Hormuz. It also threatened to extend confrontation to US bases if Washington keeps urging vessels through mined waters. The claims are unverified and no vessel names or evidence have been published.

President Trump accused Iran of inventing the hits and mines to push up oil before the US midterms, and denied that negotiations are under way, saying an outcome will come fairly soon. UKMTO has recorded more than two dozen attacks on ships in October, a record, and says most attacked vessels are not reporting incidents.

Brent closed at 113.17 $/bbl on 22 October, up 4.0% on the day, with TTF at 89.74 EUR/MWh, up 3.5%. Preliminary Kpler figures put Hormuz flows including offshore transfers at about 82% of prewar volumes, while the Saudi East-West pipeline now carries about 7 million barrels a day, up from 2 million.

The US blockade of Iranian ports has run for 100 days since being reinstated on 14 July after the Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding collapsed. Kpler says Iran's floating oil reserves ran out in mid-October.

At the 22 October market close UK gas rose by roughly 1.4% to 1.8% across every season from Sum-27 to Win-29. Sum-27 stands at 5.83 p/kWh and Win-27 at 5.55 p/kWh.

TTF closed at 89.74 EUR/MWh after touching 90 EUR/MWh earlier in the week, the highest since December 2022. Attacks on Gulf shipping are keeping Qatari LNG exports constrained, and JKM in Asia closed at 30.6 $/MMBtu, which means stiff competition for cargoes.

EU storage was 74.6% full on 21 October, which is 16.4 percentage points below the 91% five-year norm for this date. It has barely moved in the past two days. The refill target for winter 2026/27 is 90% of capacity by 1 December, with Commission flexibility down to 80%.

At 09:40 BST on 23 October demand was 35.1 GW. Wind supplied 10.3 GW (29.3%), gas 5.0 GW (14.2%) and nuclear 5.0 GW (14.2%). Net interconnector imports were about 7.7 GW (22%), led by France at 3.0 GW, with Norway and Denmark each around 1.4 GW.

UK power at the 22 October close was little changed in Sum-27 at 12.99 p/kWh, down 0.1%, while Win-27 rose 0.7% to 12.97 p/kWh. Later seasons gained between 0.8% and 1.5%, tracking gas.