Energy Market Briefing

Monday 26 October 2026 · Generated 08:43 GMT · Since Friday morning

Hormuz remains effectively closed to commercial shipping, with unverified Iranian claims of mines hitting two supertankers over the weekend and Tehran denying it offered to reopen the strait. Oil and gas closed Friday sharply higher and UK gas and power forwards firmed again at the last close, while EU gas storage sits well below its five-year norm.

UK Gas▲
NBP Sum-27 up 1.5% at the 22 October close
UK Power•
Sum-27 little changed, later seasons edged up with gas
EU Storage▼
74.6% full, 16.4pp under the 5yr norm
Market bias
Firm, upside riskSofter · Firmer
Gulf LNG and oil flows remain disrupted and Brent and TTF both closed Friday sharply higher.
UK gas Sum-27
5.83p/kWh
+1.5% day-on-day
UK power Sum-27
12.99p/kWh
-0.1% day-on-day
EU gas storage
74.6% full
16.4pp below 5yr norm
TTF prompt
93.79EUR/MWh
+4.5% at Friday's close
Brent crude
116.72$/bbl
+3.1% at Friday's close

Today's headlines

1 · GEOPOLITICS
Hormuz stays effectively shut as Iran claims mines hit two supertankers, while Tehran denies offering to reopen the strait.
Strait still effectively closed
Shipping data shows only a handful of daily transits against a pre-crisis norm of around 85, although the latest count is from 18 October and the feed is delayed, so the true picture may differ.
Mine claims unverified
Iran's Revolutionary Guard says two supertankers struck naval mines. This is unconfirmed, and a separate report that an oil slick from a tanker has reached UAE beaches is also single source.
No agreed route to reopening
Reports that Iran offered to reopen the strait in return for the US lifting its blockade were denied by Iranian state media, which says nothing was passed to Washington or to Pakistan as mediator.
Oil at the Friday close
Brent settled at $116.72/bbl, up 3.1% on the day, with WTI at $103.27/bbl. Houthi strikes on Yemen and Saudi Arabia are an additional regional risk, though also not independently confirmed.
2 · GAS
UK and European gas firmed into Friday's close as disrupted Gulf LNG keeps Europe short of supply heading into winter.
UK gas at the 22 October close
UK gas for Sum-27 firmed 1.5% to 5.83 p/kWh and Win-27 rose 1.4% to 5.55 p/kWh, with every season on the curve to Win-29 higher by between 1.4% and 1.8%.
TTF jumped into Friday's close
TTF prompt closed at 93.79 EUR/MWh on 23 October, up 4.5% on the day. Later quotes on Monday put it close to 97 EUR/MWh, with the gain tied to Gulf LNG flows still running far below last year.
Storage well behind the norm
EU gas storage was 74.6% full on 24 October against a five-year norm of 91.0% for today, a gap of 16.4 percentage points. The winter 2026/27 target is 90% of capacity by 1 December, with Commission flexibility down to 80%, and some countries have started drawing as temperatures fall.
Norwegian supply
Norwegian exports to Europe were reported running ahead of last year's pace in mid October after maintenance finished, so Norway is not currently a source of fresh tightness.
3 · POWER
Wind is supplying about a third of Britain's power this morning, though longer dated UK power prices edged up with gas.
Generation this morning
At 08:40 GMT demand was 35.0 GW. Wind supplied 11.6 GW (33%), nuclear 5.1 GW (15%) and gas 4.9 GW (14%), with net interconnector imports of 5.1 GW (14%).
Forwards follow gas
UK power for Sum-27 was little changed at 12.99 p/kWh at the 22 October close, while Win-28 rose 1.5% to 8.90 p/kWh and Sum-29 rose 1.0% to 7.35 p/kWh, tracking the gas curve higher.
What to watch
With gas setting the marginal price on low wind days, any further step up in TTF or NBP feeds straight through to UK power, and Hormuz headlines remain the main driver.

Forward curve & seasonal movesi

UK powerUK gas NBPmonthly forward, p/kWh · market close on 23 October 2026
0.05.310.716.021.3202720282029203020312032
23 Oct 2026
SeasonPowerΔGasΔ
Sum-2712.99-0.15%5.83+1.49%
Win-2712.97+0.70%5.55+1.40%
Sum-288.30+0.77%3.47+1.76%
Win-288.90+1.51%3.62+1.47%
Sum-297.35+1.00%2.69+1.40%
Win-297.98+0.92%2.96+1.37%
Seasonal contracts in p/kWh, change is day on day, as of market close on 22 October 2026.

UK generation mixi

35.0GW demand
Wind11.60 GW33.1%
Nuclear5.08 GW14.5%
Interconnectors5.07 GW14.5%
Gas (CCGT + OCGT)4.85 GW13.8%
Biomass2.95 GW8.4%
Hydro + pumped1.66 GW4.7%
Solar0.28 GW0.8%
Other3.52 GW10.1%
As of 26 October 2026, 08:40 GMT. Tap a fuel or a slice to isolate it, tap again to reset.

EU gas storagei

Now
74.6%
5yr norm
91.0%
-16.4pp vs 5yr normDashed line: 90% winter target
Winter 2026/27 target is 90% of capacity by 1 December, with Commission flexibility down to 80%. As of 24 October 2026.

Other commoditiesi

TTF▲+4.51%JKM▲+2.60%Brent▲+3.14%WTI▲+3.82%UK carbon▲+0.05%EU carbon▼-0.23%FTSE 100▼-0.32%GBPUSD▼-0.20%GBPEUR▼-0.09%Gold▼-0.71%TTF▲+4.51%JKM▲+2.60%Brent▲+3.14%WTI▲+3.82%UK carbon▲+0.05%EU carbon▼-0.23%FTSE 100▼-0.32%GBPUSD▼-0.20%GBPEUR▼-0.09%Gold▼-0.71%
Global gasiTTF▲+4.51%JKM▲+2.60%
406080100TTF (€/MWh)1520253035JKM ($/MMBtu)May 26Jul 26Sep 26
OiliBrent▲+3.14%WTI▲+3.82%
708090100110120Brent ($/bbl)60708090100110WTI ($/bbl)May 26Jul 26Sep 26
CarboniUK carbon▲+0.05%EU carbon▼-0.23%
455055606570UK carbon (£/t)7075808590EU carbon (€/t)May 26Jul 26Sep 26
FTSE 100i▼-0.32%
10,00010,20010,40010,60010,80011,000FTSE 100 (£)May 26Jul 26Sep 26
ForexiGBPUSD▼-0.20%GBPEUR▼-0.09%
1.311.321.331.341.351.361.37GBPUSD1.141.151.161.171.181.191.20GBPEURMay 26Jul 26Sep 26
Goldi▼-0.71%
3,8004,0004,2004,4004,6004,800Gold ($/oz)May 26Jul 26Sep 26
Past 6 months of daily closes. As of 23 October 2026. Change shown is the latest close against the previous close.