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Energy Market Briefing

Tuesday 27 October 2026 · Generated 10:00 GMT · Past 24 hours

Gulf tensions are still driving the market, but Monday's talks between Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Pakistan and Iran gave gas a little relief on Tuesday after European prices hit a multi-year high. UK gas and longer-dated power firmed at the last close and EU gas storage is at its lowest level for this time of year on record.

UK Gas▲

NBP Sum-27 up 1.5% at the 22 October close

UK Power▲

Longer-dated power firmed with gas, front summer little changed

EU Storage▼

74.9% full, 16.1pp under the 5yr norm

Market bias

Firm, upside riskSofter · Firmer

Low EU storage and disrupted Gulf LNG keep gas supported, with peace hopes the main downside risk.

UK gas Sum-27

5.83p/kWh

+1.5% day-on-day

UK power Sum-27

12.99p/kWh

-0.1% day-on-day

EU gas storage

74.9% full

16.1pp below 5yr norm

TTF prompt

95.82EUR/MWh

+2.5% at the 26 Oct close

Brent crude

115.81$/bbl

-0.8% at the 26 Oct close

Today's headlines

1 · GEOPOLITICS
Talks between Iran and three regional powers raised hopes of easing, but shipping through the Strait of Hormuz is still contested and unsafe.
Talks held on Monday
Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan held talks with Iranian officials on 26 October, which Tehran described as very good. European gas eased on Tuesday on hopes of a resolution, though an immediate peace still looks uncertain.
Shipping safety is disputed
US Central Command said on 25 October that the primary transit routes through the Strait of Hormuz are free of Iranian mines. The International Maritime Organization has said it cannot guarantee a vessel will avoid a mine, and attacks on shipping have continued.
Iran's mine claims
Iran's Revolutionary Guards said on 17 October that two tankers hit mines, a claim not independently confirmed. Iran's seven-day reopening proposal passed through Qatar was described as stalled on 20 October.
Risk after the US midterms
Reports on 23 October said the US is preparing for a possible new attack on Iran after the midterm elections on 3 November, which keeps a supply disruption risk in the price.
Oil at the Monday close
Brent closed at $115.81 a barrel on 26 October, down 0.8% on the day after $116.72 on Friday.
2 · GAS
UK gas firmed at the last close and Europe's gas storage is the lowest for this time of year since records began.
UK gas at the 22 October close
UK gas for Sum-27 firmed 1.5% to 5.83 p/kWh and Win-27 gained 1.4% to 5.55 p/kWh. Later seasons rose by a similar 1.4% to 1.8%.
TTF at a multi-year high
EU TTF front month closed at 95.82 EUR/MWh on 26 October, up 2.5% on the day and a multi-year high. It slipped below 96 EUR/MWh on Tuesday on the peace hopes but is still around a third higher than a month ago.
Storage lowest on record for the date
EU gas storage was 74.9% full on 25 October, 16.1pp below the 5yr norm of 91.0% for today and, according to Trading Economics, the lowest for the season since records began in 2009. Germany is just over 61% full. The 90% filling target for 1 December, with flexibility down to 80%, looks a long way off.
LNG and Norway
Constrained Middle East LNG exports and curtailed Persian Gulf supply are increasing competition for spot cargoes, with unplanned Norwegian outages reported in mid October trimming pipeline capacity.
3 · POWER
Wind supplied about 42% of Britain's power this morning, while longer-dated UK power prices followed gas higher at the last close.
Generation this morning
Wind supplied 14.29 GW or 41.9% of demand at 09:40 GMT on 27 October, ahead of nuclear at 14.9% and gas at 14.2%. Demand was 34.08 GW.
Forwards follow gas
UK power for Sum-27 was little changed at 12.99 p/kWh at the 22 October close. Win-27 rose 0.7% to 12.97 p/kWh and Win-28 added 1.5% to 8.90 p/kWh.
What to watch
Gas remains the price setter at the margin, so any shift in Gulf talks or a cold snap in Central Europe would feed straight into UK power.

Forward curve & seasonal movesi

UK powerUK gas NBPmonthly forward, p/kWh · market close on 26 October 2026

26 Oct 2026

Season	Power	Δ	Gas	Δ
Sum-27	12.99	-0.15%	5.83	+1.49%
Win-27	12.97	+0.70%	5.55	+1.40%
Sum-28	8.30	+0.77%	3.47	+1.76%
Win-28	8.90	+1.51%	3.62	+1.47%
Sum-29	7.35	+1.00%	2.69	+1.40%
Win-29	7.98	+0.92%	2.96	+1.37%

Seasonal contracts in p/kWh, change is day on day, as of market close on 22 October 2026.

UK generation mixi

Wind14.29 GW41.9%

Nuclear5.09 GW14.9%

Gas (CCGT + OCGT)4.84 GW14.2%

Solar4.09 GW12.0%

Biomass2.29 GW6.7%

Interconnectors0.90 GW2.6%

Hydro + pumped0.49 GW1.4%

Other2.09 GW6.1%

As of 27 October 2026, 09:40 GMT. Tap a fuel or a slice to isolate it, tap again to reset.

EU gas storagei

Now

74.9%

5yr norm

91.0%

-16.1pp vs 5yr normDashed line: 90% winter target

Winter 2026/27 target is 90% of capacity by 1 December, with Commission flexibility down to 80%. As of 25 October 2026.

Other commoditiesi

TTF▲+2.48%JKM▲+2.47%Brent▼-0.78%WTI▼-1.46%UK carbon▲+2.26%EU carbon▲+2.21%FTSE 100▲+0.72%GBPUSD▼-0.25%GBPEUR▲+0.03%Gold▲+0.52%TTF▲+2.48%JKM▲+2.47%Brent▼-0.78%WTI▼-1.46%UK carbon▲+2.26%EU carbon▲+2.21%FTSE 100▲+0.72%GBPUSD▼-0.25%GBPEUR▲+0.03%Gold▲+0.52%

Global gasiTTF▲+2.48%JKM▲+2.47%

OiliBrent▼-0.78%WTI▼-1.46%

CarboniUK carbon▲+2.26%EU carbon▲+2.21%

FTSE 100i▲+0.72%

ForexiGBPUSD▼-0.25%GBPEUR▲+0.03%

Goldi▲+0.52%

Past 6 months of daily closes. As of 26 October 2026. Change shown is the latest close against the previous close.