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Energy Market Briefing

Wednesday 28 October 2026 · Generated 10:00 GMT · Past 24 hours

Unplanned Norwegian gas outages and a colder, much calmer spell from Thursday are the new pressure on UK gas and power, on top of Gulf shipping risk and a Europe that is still short of stored gas. Funds have added to bets on higher prices, so the market is exposed if diplomacy brings relief.

UK Gas▲

NBP Sum-27 up 1.5% at the 22 October close

UK Power•

Front summer little changed, later seasons firmer

EU Storage▼

74.9% full, 16.2pp under norm

Market bias

Firm, upside riskSofter · Firmer

Norwegian outages, low storage and a cold, still spell lift gas, with peace talks the main downside risk.

UK gas Sum-27

5.83p/kWh

+1.5% day-on-day

UK power Sum-27

12.99p/kWh

-0.1% day-on-day

EU gas storage

74.9% full

16.2pp below 5yr norm

TTF prompt

95.82EUR/MWh

+2.5% at the 26 Oct close

Brent crude

115.81$/bbl

-0.8% at the 26 Oct close

Today's headlines

1 · GAS AND POWER
Norwegian gas outages and a cold, windless spell from Thursday leave Britain short of supply as winter approaches.
Norwegian outages take out supply
Unplanned restrictions at the Sleipner, Oseberg and Åsgard fields removed roughly 40 mcm/day of Norwegian capacity, and about 37 mcm/day was still curtailed on Tuesday morning according to Gassco data. UK North Sea output was around 82.5 mcm/day and the UK system was about 6 mcm/day short.
Cold and calm from Thursday
Forecasts show the weather turning abruptly colder from Thursday, with wind output across north-west Europe falling to a load factor of 3% to 6% from Thursday to Saturday. That points to higher gas burn for power and wider swings in prices within the day.
UK power jumped as wind dropped
UK day-ahead power settled at 11.0 p/kWh on Monday against 3.7 p/kWh on Friday after wind output fell away following a windy weekend. Three Heysham nuclear units were fully or partly offline and Belgium's Doel 4 is out until 1 November.
Where prices stand
UK gas for Sum-27 firmed 1.5% to 5.83 p/kWh at the 22 October close, the latest Market Table data we hold, and Win-27 gained 1.4% to 5.55 p/kWh. UK power for Sum-27 was little changed at 12.99 p/kWh while Win-28 rose 1.5% to 8.90 p/kWh. At the 26 October close TTF was 95.82 EUR/MWh, up 2.5% on the day.
Britain's generation mix this morning
Wind supplied 12.96 GW or 38.1% of the 34.0 GW of demand at 09:40 GMT on 28 October, down from about 42% a day earlier. Gas supplied 16.9% and net interconnector imports about 7.1%, up from 2.6% yesterday.
2 · GEOPOLITICS
Regional talks with Iran continue but Tehran is holding firm, and the Strait of Hormuz stays dangerous ahead of the US midterms.
Talks continue, positions unchanged
Senior officials from Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and Turkey met Iranian officials on Monday and agreed to keep talking, and China said on Tuesday it will send an envoy to the region. Tehran still wants sanctions relief, an end to the US naval blockade and guarantees against fresh attacks before it helps reopen shipping.
Shipping through Hormuz stays dangerous
Analysts cited by Al Jazeera on 27 October say October has seen the most attacks on commercial shipping around the strait of any month of the conflict. Before the war about a fifth of global oil and LNG passed through it.
Dates that could move the market
The US midterm elections on 3 November are seen as a possible trigger for renewed US action against Iran, and an OPEC+ meeting is due on 1 November. Both keep a supply risk premium in prices.
Oil at the Monday close
Brent closed at 115.81 $/bbl on 26 October, down 0.8% on the day on the diplomatic headlines but about 6% higher on the week. WTI fell 1.5% to 101.76 $/bbl.
3 · POSITIONING
Investment funds added to bets on higher gas prices again last week, while EU gas storage is still only about three quarters full.
Funds keep adding length
Investment funds' net long position in European gas rose to 207.4 TWh for the week ending 23 October, up 14.2 TWh or 7.4% on the previous week. The market has been very bullish and that positioning reflects it.
Why it matters
Heavy fund length means a sudden easing in Gulf tensions or a milder forecast could trigger sharp selling, while fresh supply news can push prices higher still.
EU storage still well behind
EU gas storage was 74.9% full on 26 October, 16.2pp below the five year norm of 91.1% for today. Germany is around 61.5% full. The winter 2026/27 target is 90% of capacity by 1 December, with Commission flexibility down to 80%, and the gap leaves the market sensitive to any cold spell.
UK storage is thinner still
UK gas storage was reported at only 40.5% full on Monday, which adds to the pressure on British prices when supply is tight.

Forward curve & seasonal movesi

UK powerUK gas NBPmonthly forward, p/kWh · market close on 27 October 2026

27 Oct 2026

UK generation mixi

Wind12.96 GW38.1%

Gas (CCGT + OCGT)5.75 GW16.9%

Nuclear5.10 GW15.0%

Biomass3.10 GW9.1%

Solar2.78 GW8.2%

Interconnectors2.40 GW7.1%

Hydro + pumped0.82 GW2.4%

Other1.09 GW3.2%

As of 28 October 2026, 09:40 GMT. Tap a fuel or a slice to isolate it, tap again to reset.

EU gas storagei

Now

74.9%

5yr norm

91.1%

-16.2pp vs 5yr normDashed line: 90% winter target

Winter 2026/27 target is 90% of capacity by 1 December, with Commission flexibility down to 80%. As of 26 October 2026.

Other commoditiesi

TTF▲+2.48%JKM▲+2.47%Brent▼-0.78%WTI▼-1.46%UK carbon▲+2.26%EU carbon▲+2.21%FTSE 100▲+0.72%GBPUSD▼-0.25%GBPEUR▲+0.03%Gold▲+0.52%TTF▲+2.48%JKM▲+2.47%Brent▼-0.78%WTI▼-1.46%UK carbon▲+2.26%EU carbon▲+2.21%FTSE 100▲+0.72%GBPUSD▼-0.25%GBPEUR▲+0.03%Gold▲+0.52%

Global gasiTTF▲+2.48%JKM▲+2.47%

OiliBrent▼-0.78%WTI▼-1.46%

CarboniUK carbon▲+2.26%EU carbon▲+2.21%

FTSE 100i▲+0.72%

ForexiGBPUSD▼-0.25%GBPEUR▲+0.03%

Goldi▲+0.52%

Past 6 months of daily closes. As of 26 October 2026. Change shown is the latest close against the previous close.