Energy Market Briefing

At 09:40 GMT on 29 October wind supplied 2.92 GW or 8.0% of Britain's 36.47 GW of demand, while gas plants supplied 17.34 GW or 47.6%. Forecasts cited by Prestige Business Solutions on 28 October put wind load factors across north-west Europe at 3% to 6% from Thursday to Saturday, with UK metered wind below 5 GW through 6 November.

UK day-ahead power settled at 17.50 p/kWh on Tuesday against 11.00 p/kWh on Monday and 3.70 p/kWh on Friday, with the peak hour at 18.76 p/kWh. Over the full window UK power for Sum-27 firmed 2.7% to 13.49 p/kWh at the 28 October close and UK gas for Sum-27 gained 3.7% to 6.20 p/kWh.

Unplanned Norwegian outages at Karsto, Oseberg, Kollsnes and Sleipner removed 37 to 50 mcm/day on Tuesday, though total Gassco exit nominations had recovered to 330.1 mcm/day with the two processing hubs expected back by the day-ahead. UK North Sea output was 82.2 mcm/day against demand of 162.1 mcm/day, with LNG send-out of about 18 mcm/day covering much of the gap.

UK NBP day-ahead settled at 8.12 p/kWh on Tuesday and was bid near 8.31 p/kWh on Wednesday morning, with the November contract at 8.10 p/kWh. TTF closed at 100.17 EUR/MWh on 28 October, up 4.9% on the day, and is background rather than a price UK readers pay.

The independent Straits monitor recorded 2 transits through Hormuz on 25 October against a pre-crisis baseline of about 85 a day, and rates the strait as effectively closed to commercial traffic. The Revolutionary Guard declared it closed on 26 October.

UKMTO has reported a vessel on fire in the strait off Oman, carried by Middle East Eye and others, with crew status unknown. Iran has also claimed a tanker struck mines and that it shot down a US drone, neither of which has been independently confirmed.

Officials from Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and Turkey met Iranian officials and agreed to keep talking, and Oman says its talks produced an outline for a temporary deal on navigation. Trump denies that peace talks are under way, so the picture is mixed rather than improving.

Brent closed at 115.32 $/bbl on 28 October, up 1.3% on the day, and was near 113.34 $/bbl on Thursday morning according to Straits. QatarEnergy has extended force majeure on a 6.4 bcm/yr supply contract to 30 December, and Prestige Business Solutions reports 38 missing LNG cargoes in total.

Investment funds' net long position rose 14.2 TWh, or 7.4%, to 207.4 TWh for the week ending 23 October. Our desk read is that the market has been very bullish and the positioning reflects that, which leaves prices exposed if diplomacy brings relief.

EU gas storage was 75.0% full on 27 October, 16.2pp below the 5-year norm of 91.2%. Prestige Business Solutions reports this is the lowest seasonal level in records back to 2009, and UK storage sites are at just 41.3%.

The winter 2026/27 target is 90% of capacity by 1 December, with Commission flexibility allowing member states to reduce it to a minimum of 80%.