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Energy Market Briefing

Friday 30 October 2026 · Generated 10:00 GMT · Past 24 hours

UK gas and power eased at the 29 October close and TTF fell back after US outreach to restart Iran talks. Oil is still near $115 and Houthi claims of fresh strikes on Saudi sites keep the supply risk live, while gas plants are supplying more than a third of Britain's power.

UK Gas▼

Nov-26 down 2.8% at the 29 October close

UK Power▼

Nov-26 down 1.9%, tracking gas lower

EU Storage•

74.9% full, 16.3pp under norm

Market bias

Firm, upside risk remainsSofter · Firmer

A softer close is set against high oil, a thin storage cushion and heavy gas burn in power.

UK gas Nov-26

8.25p/kWh

-2.8% day-on-day

UK power Nov-26

19.47p/kWh

-1.9% day-on-day

EU gas storage

74.9% full

16.3pp below 5yr norm

TTF prompt

97.55EUR/MWh

-2.6% on the day

Brent crude

114.88$/bbl

-0.4% on the day

Today's headlines

1 · GEOPOLITICS
US outreach to restart Iran talks calmed oil briefly, but Houthi claims of new strikes on Saudi sites revive supply fears.
Talks outreach
Oil prices fell on 29 October after US Vice President Vance moved to restart Iran peace talks by contacting Iran's security council (oilprice.com, 29 October).
New Gulf risk
The Houthis claimed fresh strikes on Saudi refineries and Aramco facilities on 30 October. This is a claim reported by oilprice.com and we have not seen independent confirmation of damage or lost output.
Oil still elevated
Brent closed at 114.88 $/bbl on 29 October, down 0.4% on the day. UBS sees Brent at 110 $/bbl by year-end because Gulf flows remain below prewar levels (oilprice.com, 28 October). TTF closed at 97.55 EUR/MWh, down 2.6% after a 4.9% rise the day before.
2 · GAS AND POWER
UK gas and power eased at the last close, but gas plants still supply well over a third of Britain's power.
Prices at the 29 October close
UK gas for November delivery closed at 8.25 p/kWh, down 2.8% on the day, and UK power for November at 19.47 p/kWh, down 1.9%. Both are still well above the levels for next summer and beyond, with the curve sloping down steeply from April 2027.
Gas is the marginal fuel
At 09:40 on 30 October gas plants were supplying 13.42 GW, 37.2% of 36.09 GW of demand. Wind gave 6.86 GW (19.0%), nuclear 5.12 GW (14.2%) and biomass 3.33 GW (9.2%). Net interconnector flow was small at about 1 GW, with exports to Denmark and the Netherlands offsetting imports from France and Norway.
Fund positioning
Investment funds' net long in European gas rose by 14.2 TWh (7.4%) to 207.4 TWh in the week to 23 October, which Alex described as reflecting a very bullish market (market news email, 28 October).
3 · POLICY
EU energy ministers met on the winter price squeeze while Europe released emergency oil stocks to ease fuel costs.
EU ministers meet
EU energy ministers met on 29 October to address the worsening price squeeze ahead of winter (oilprice.com, 29 October). The EU also says the Middle East crisis is adding about 11 billion dollars a month to its oil import bill.
Emergency oil stocks
Europe is releasing 42 million barrels of emergency oil stocks, half of it diesel, to ease fuel prices before winter (oilprice.com, 29 October).
Storage background
EU gas storage was 74.9% full on 28 October, 16.3 percentage points below the 91.2% five-year norm for this date. The winter 2026/27 filling target is 90% of capacity by 1 December, with Commission flexibility down to 80%.

Forward curve & seasonal movesi

UK powerUK gas NBPmonthly forward, p/kWh · market close on 29 October 2026

29 Oct 2026

UK generation mixi

Gas (CCGT + OCGT)13.42 GW37.2%

Wind6.86 GW19.0%

Nuclear5.12 GW14.2%

Biomass3.33 GW9.2%

Solar2.80 GW7.8%

Interconnectors0.98 GW2.7%

Hydro + pumped0.64 GW1.8%

Other2.94 GW8.2%

As of 30 October 2026, 09:40 GMT. Tap a fuel or a slice to isolate it, tap again to reset.

EU gas storagei

Now

74.9%

5yr norm

91.2%

-16.3pp vs 5yr normDashed line: 90% winter target

Winter 2026/27 target is 90% of capacity by 1 December, with Commission flexibility down to 80%. As of 28 October 2026.

Other commoditiesi

TTF▼-2.62%JKM▼-0.99%Brent▼-0.38%WTI▼-0.76%UK carbon▲+0.34%EU carbon▲+0.10%FTSE 100▲+0.26%GBPUSD▲+0.38%GBPEUR▲+0.16%Gold▼-1.15%TTF▼-2.62%JKM▼-0.99%Brent▼-0.38%WTI▼-0.76%UK carbon▲+0.34%EU carbon▲+0.10%FTSE 100▲+0.26%GBPUSD▲+0.38%GBPEUR▲+0.16%Gold▼-1.15%

Global gasiTTF▼-2.62%JKM▼-0.99%

OiliBrent▼-0.38%WTI▼-0.76%

CarboniUK carbon▲+0.34%EU carbon▲+0.10%

FTSE 100i▲+0.26%

ForexiGBPUSD▲+0.38%GBPEUR▲+0.16%

Goldi▼-1.15%

Past 6 months of daily closes. As of 29 October 2026. Change shown is the latest close against the previous close.