Past briefings

November 2026

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Energy Market Briefing

Monday 2 November 2026 · Generated 09:43 GMT · Since Friday morning

Oil eased on Monday as Iran said it is discussing a shortened Hormuz reopening plan with Qatari mediators, though unconfirmed reports of tanker mine strikes keep supply risk high. UK gas eased with it, EU gas storage is about 75% full against a usual 91.5% for early November, and gas plants still supplied nearly a third of Britain's power this morning.

UK Gas▼

NBP prompt eased about 2% on Monday to around 8.6 p/kWh (indicative quote)

UK Power•

Gas sets the price, with wind at a quarter of supply this morning

EU Storage▼

74.6% full, 16.9pp under the 5yr norm

Market bias

Headline driven, upside riskSofter · Firmer

Prices eased on Hormuz plan hopes, but storage is well behind the norm and the plan is unconfirmed.

UK gas Sum-27

5.83p/kWh

+1.5% at 22 Oct close

UK power Sum-27

12.99p/kWh

-0.1% at 22 Oct close

EU gas storage

74.6% full

16.9pp below 5yr norm

Brent crude

111.20$/bbl

down about 2% on Monday

Today's headlines

1 · GEOPOLITICS
Oil eased as Iran said a shortened Hormuz reopening plan is with Qatari mediators, though unconfirmed tanker mine strikes keep supply risk high.
Hormuz plan
Iran's foreign minister said a Qatar-brokered plan to reopen the Strait of Hormuz has been shortened from seven days to two, with US measures on day one and the strait opening on day two. Tehran's conditions include sanctions relief and recognition of designated shipping routes, and Washington has not publicly responded.
Oil reaction
Brent fell about 2% on Monday to roughly $111 a barrel, having peaked near $117.50 on 28 October. Quotes vary by provider, with another report putting it nearer $109, so treat the level as indicative.
Risks
Two tankers, one a VLCC, were reportedly struck by mines in the Strait on Sunday, but these reports are unconfirmed. OPEC+ held its December output target unchanged for a third month, and the next OPEC+ meeting is on 1 December.
2 · GAS AND POWER
UK gas eased on Monday, but gas-fired plants still supplied nearly a third of Britain's power this morning while wind provided a quarter.
UK gas
UK gas for prompt delivery was quoted at about 8.62 p/kWh, around 8.6 p/kWh, down roughly 2% on the day and still sharply higher over the past month. This is an indicative CFD quote rather than an exchange settlement.
Seasonal curve
The latest seasonal table we hold is the 22 October close, so the seasonal table is not shown. At that close UK gas for Sum-27 was about 5.83 p/kWh and UK power about 12.99 p/kWh. Fresh closing prices have not yet reached us for the days since.
Generation this morning
At 09:40 GMT demand was 38.05 GW. Gas plants supplied 12.17 GW (32%), wind 9.64 GW (25%), nuclear 5.12 GW (13%), solar an estimated 4.16 GW (11%) and biomass 3.31 GW (9%). The data provider warns that solar may be overstated and that some feeds are delayed.
3 · STORAGE
EU gas storage is about 75% full, well behind its usual level for early November, with the 1 December filling target a month away.
Where storage stands
EU gas storage was 74.6% full on 31 October, against a five year norm of 91.5% for 2 November, a gap of about 16.9 percentage points.
The 1 December target
The winter 2026/27 target is 90% of capacity by 1 December, with Commission flexibility allowing member states to go as low as 80%. Even the 80% floor needs around five more points of fill in a month, so injections matter for the winter risk premium.
By country
Italy was 91.1% full and France 86.7%, while Germany was 61.0% and Austria 66.1%.

Forward curve & seasonal movesi

UK powerUK gas NBPmonthly forward, p/kWh · market close on 30 October 2026

30 Oct 2026

UK generation mixi

Gas (CCGT + OCGT)12.17 GW32.0%

Wind9.64 GW25.3%

Nuclear5.12 GW13.5%

Solar4.16 GW10.9%

Biomass3.31 GW8.7%

Interconnectors0.82 GW2.2%

Hydro + pumped0.64 GW1.7%

Other2.19 GW5.8%

As of 2 November 2026, 09:40 GMT. Tap a fuel or a slice to isolate it, tap again to reset.

EU gas storagei

Now

74.6%

5yr norm

91.5%

-16.9pp vs 5yr normDashed line: 90% winter target

Winter 2026/27 target is 90% of capacity by 1 December, with Commission flexibility down to 80%. As of 31 October 2026.

Other commoditiesi

TTF▲+6.50%JKM▲+2.51%Brent▲+2.40%WTI▲+2.08%UK carbon▼-0.64%EU carbon▼-0.02%FTSE 100▲+0.07%GBPUSD▲+0.12%GBPEUR▲+0.21%Gold▼-3.62%TTF▲+6.50%JKM▲+2.51%Brent▲+2.40%WTI▲+2.08%UK carbon▼-0.64%EU carbon▼-0.02%FTSE 100▲+0.07%GBPUSD▲+0.12%GBPEUR▲+0.21%Gold▼-3.62%

Global gasiTTF▲+6.50%JKM▲+2.51%

OiliBrent▲+2.40%WTI▲+2.08%

CarboniUK carbon▼-0.64%EU carbon▼-0.02%

FTSE 100i▲+0.07%

ForexiGBPUSD▲+0.12%GBPEUR▲+0.21%

Goldi▼-3.62%

Past 6 months of daily closes. As of 30 October 2026. Change shown is the latest close against the previous close.