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Energy Market Briefing

Tuesday 3 November 2026 · Generated 10:30 GMT · Past 24 hours

Oil and gas prices fell sharply at Monday's close after Iran said a Qatar-brokered plan could reopen the Strait of Hormuz within two days, though Washington has not yet answered and tankers were hit in the strait last week. UK gas and power fell across the whole forward curve, and with wind lighter this morning gas plants are again supplying about two fifths of British power.

UK Gas▼

NBP Sum-27 down 7.3% at the 2 Nov close, 5.84 p/kWh

UK Power▼

Sum-27 power down 5.6% at the 2 Nov close, 12.98 p/kWh

EU Storage▼

74.6% full, 16.9pp under the 5yr norm

Market bias

Softer, but fragileSofter · Firmer

Prices fell on hopes of a Hormuz reopening that Washington has not yet accepted, so a reversal is easy.

UK gas Sum-27

5.84p/kWh

-7.3% at the 2 Nov close

UK power Sum-27

12.98p/kWh

-5.6% at the 2 Nov close

EU gas storage

74.6% full

16.9pp below 5yr norm

TTF prompt

94.94EUR/MWh

-8.6% since the 30 Oct close

Brent crude

104.77$/bbl

-10.9% since the 30 Oct close

Today's headlines

1 · GEOPOLITICS
Oil had its sharpest drop in three months after Iran said Qatar-brokered plan could reopen the Strait of Hormuz in two days.
What changed
Iran's foreign minister said Qatar persuaded Tehran to shorten its plan to reopen the Strait of Hormuz from seven days to two, with US measures on day one and the strait reopened on day two. Brent settled at $104.77/bbl on 2 November, down 10.9% from $117.64/bbl at the 30 October settlement, and US crude fell 7.3% to $96.46/bbl.
Why it is fragile
Iran's conditions include lifting recent US sanctions and a smaller US military presence, and Washington has not yet answered. Two tankers were hit in the strait in the 24 hours to 30 October, one by what the Revolutionary Guard called a naval mine, so the supply risk has not gone away.
Other markets
TTF gas closed at 94.94 EUR/MWh on 2 November against 103.89 on 30 October, down 8.6%. UK carbon edged up to 66.26 and gold recovered to about $3,947/oz.
2 · GAS AND POWER
UK gas and power fell across the whole forward curve at Monday's close, with gas dropping harder than power.
UK gas
At the 2 November close UK gas fell 7.3% for Sum-27 to 5.84 p/kWh and 6.4% for Win-27 to 5.57 p/kWh. The back of the curve fell too, with Sum-29 down 5.7% to 2.63 p/kWh.
UK power
UK power fell 5.6% for Sum-27 to 12.98 p/kWh and 5.8% for Win-27 to 12.88 p/kWh, so power followed gas lower but by less. The fall comes after gas had firmed into the 30 October close.
Winter 2026/27
Win-26 is now delivering, so it no longer trades as a forward price and is left out of the seasonal moves.
3 · GENERATION
Gas plants are supplying about two fifths of British power this morning while wind covers about a fifth.
Mix this morning
At 09:40 GMT on 3 November demand was 37.99 GW. Gas plants supplied 15.11 GW (39.8%), wind 7.36 GW (19.4%), nuclear 5.12 GW (13.5%), biomass 3.31 GW (8.7%) and solar an estimated 2.98 GW (7.8%).
Interconnectors
Britain was a net importer of about 1.65 GW, with France supplying 2.15 GW and Norway 1.20 GW while flows to Denmark and Ireland ran in reverse. With gas the largest source, gas continues to set the price of power.
EU gas storage
EU storage was 74.6% full on 1 November, 16.9 percentage points below the 91.5% five-year norm for that date. It is being drawn down, having fallen 4.3 TWh in seven days from 848.6 TWh on 25 October, after a recent peak of 849.1 TWh on 27 October.

Forward curve & seasonal movesi

UK powerUK gas NBPmonthly forward, p/kWh · market close on 2 November 2026

2 Nov 2026

Season	Power	Δ	Gas	Δ
Sum-27	12.98	-5.58%	5.84	-7.25%
Win-27	12.88	-5.76%	5.57	-6.39%
Sum-28	8.17	-5.93%	3.41	-7.10%
Win-28	8.73	-5.33%	3.55	-6.29%
Sum-29	7.37	-2.42%	2.63	-5.65%
Win-29	8.04	-1.89%	2.94	-4.12%

Seasonal contracts in p/kWh, change is day on day, as of market close on 2 November 2026.

UK generation mixi

Gas (CCGT + OCGT)15.11 GW39.8%

Wind7.36 GW19.4%

Nuclear5.12 GW13.5%

Biomass3.31 GW8.7%

Solar2.98 GW7.8%

Interconnectors1.65 GW4.3%

Hydro + pumped0.46 GW1.2%

Other2.00 GW5.3%

As of 3 November 2026, 09:40 GMT. Tap a fuel or a slice to isolate it, tap again to reset.

EU gas storagei

Now

74.6%

5yr norm

91.5%

-16.9pp vs 5yr normDashed line: 90% winter target

Winter 2026/27 target is 90% of capacity by 1 December, with Commission flexibility down to 80%. As of 1 November 2026.

Other commoditiesi

TTF▼-8.61%JKM▼-3.47%Brent▼-10.94%WTI▼-7.36%UK carbon▲+1.28%EU carbon▲+1.49%FTSE 100▲+0.29%GBPUSD▲+0.10%GBPEUR▼-0.11%Gold▲+1.87%TTF▼-8.61%JKM▼-3.47%Brent▼-10.94%WTI▼-7.36%UK carbon▲+1.28%EU carbon▲+1.49%FTSE 100▲+0.29%GBPUSD▲+0.10%GBPEUR▼-0.11%Gold▲+1.87%

Global gasiTTF▼-8.61%JKM▼-3.47%

OiliBrent▼-10.94%WTI▼-7.36%

CarboniUK carbon▲+1.28%EU carbon▲+1.49%

FTSE 100i▲+0.29%

ForexiGBPUSD▲+0.10%GBPEUR▼-0.11%

Goldi▲+1.87%

Past 6 months of daily closes. As of 2 November 2026. Change shown is the latest close against the previous close.