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Energy Market Briefing

Wednesday 4 November 2026 · Generated 10:00 GMT · Past 24 hours

UK gas and power fell again across the forward curve at the 3 November close, gas by more than power, as Qatar-mediated US and Iran exchanges kept hopes of easing in the Strait of Hormuz alive. Nothing has been agreed and the strait remains heavily restricted, while EU gas storage is still being drawn down and sits well below its five-year norm.

UK Gas▼

Forward NBP seasons down 3.5% to 5.4% at the 3 November close

UK Power▼

Forward power down 1.4% to 3.6%, following gas lower

EU Storage▼

74.3% full, 17.2pp under the five-year norm

Market bias

Softer, but fragileSofter · Firmer

Diplomacy is pulling prices lower, but no concessions are confirmed and the strait is still restricted.

UK gas Sum-27

5.52p/kWh

-5.4% day-on-day

UK power Sum-27

12.52p/kWh

-3.6% day-on-day

EU gas storage

74.3% full

17.2pp below 5yr norm

TTF prompt

92.11EUR/MWh

-3.0% on the day

Brent crude

103.60$/bbl

-1.1% on the day

Today's headlines

1 · GEOPOLITICS
Oil slips to its lowest settlement in almost a month as Qatar-mediated US and Iran talks continue, though nothing is agreed.
Where the talks stand
Qatar's Foreign Ministry said Doha is continuing to facilitate exchanges between Washington and Tehran and that both sides are committed to reviewing proposals. It could not announce concrete progress and no concessions are confirmed.
Tehran's stance
Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesman said Tehran will not accept diplomacy based on coercion, and the Strait of Hormuz remains heavily restricted.
Oil at the 3 November close
Brent settled at $103.60 a barrel, down 1.1% on the day and its lowest settlement since 7 October. It swung between $100.80 and $107.24 during the session, which shows how sensitive prices are to each diplomatic headline. WTI closed at $96.09.
Why it matters for UK buyers
Prices are being driven by headlines rather than by any change in physical flows, so a breakdown in talks could reverse the fall quickly.
2 · GAS AND POWER
UK gas and power fell again across the forward curve at the last close, with gas dropping further than power.
UK gas
Forward UK gas fell across every season in the latest Market Table close on 3 November. Sum-27 is 5.52 p/kWh, down 5.4% on the day, Win-27 is 5.28 p/kWh, down 5.3%, and Sum-28 is 3.25 p/kWh, down 4.5%.
UK power
Forward UK power followed gas lower but by less. Sum-27 is 12.52 p/kWh, down 3.6%, Win-27 is 12.48 p/kWh, down 3.1%, and Sum-28 is 8.00 p/kWh, down 2.0%.
European gas
TTF front month closed at 92.11 EUR/MWh on 3 November, down 3.0% on the day and from 103.89 EUR/MWh on 30 October. UK carbon edged up to 67.06 GBP/tonne.
Generation this morning
At 09:40 GMT on 4 November, gas plants supplied about 40% of British power at 15.4 GW, wind about 24% at 9.0 GW and nuclear about 13%, on demand of 38.1 GW. The GridWatch page warns that some of its data may not be current.
3 · STORAGE
EU gas storage is still being drawn down and is now about 74% full, well below its five-year norm.
Fill level
EU gas storage was 74.3% full on 2 November, which is 17.2 percentage points below the five-year norm of 91.5% for that date.
Drawdown
Storage held 841.6 TWh on 2 November, down 7.2 TWh from 848.8 TWh seven days earlier. The recent peak was 849.1 TWh on 27 October.
What it means
A thinner winter buffer leaves Europe more exposed to cold weather and to any further supply disruption, which keeps gas prices sensitive to news even as diplomacy pulls them lower.

Forward curve & seasonal movesi

UK powerUK gas NBPmonthly forward, p/kWh · market close on 3 November 2026

3 Nov 2026

Season	Power	Δ	Gas	Δ
Sum-27	12.52	-3.56%	5.52	-5.38%
Win-27	12.48	-3.09%	5.28	-5.26%
Sum-28	8.00	-1.96%	3.25	-4.47%
Win-28	8.61	-1.43%	3.43	-3.54%
Sum-29	7.25	-1.55%	2.52	-4.50%
Win-29	7.88	-1.90%	2.82	-4.00%

Seasonal contracts in p/kWh, change is day on day, as of market close on 3 November 2026.

UK generation mixi

Gas (CCGT + OCGT)15.36 GW40.4%

Wind8.95 GW23.5%

Nuclear5.13 GW13.5%

Biomass3.34 GW8.8%

Interconnectors1.80 GW4.7%

Solar1.61 GW4.2%

Hydro + pumped0.45 GW1.2%

Other1.43 GW3.8%

As of 4 November 2026, 09:40 GMT. Tap a fuel or a slice to isolate it, tap again to reset.

EU gas storagei

Now

74.3%

5yr norm

91.5%

-17.2pp vs 5yr normDashed line: 90% winter target

Winter 2026/27 target is 90% of capacity by 1 December, with Commission flexibility down to 80%. As of 2 November 2026.

Other commoditiesi

TTF▼-2.98%JKM▲+0.19%Brent▼-1.12%WTI▼-0.38%UK carbon▲+1.21%EU carbon▼-0.63%FTSE 100▼-1.14%GBPUSD▲+0.04%GBPEUR▲+0.03%Gold▼-0.49%TTF▼-2.98%JKM▲+0.19%Brent▼-1.12%WTI▼-0.38%UK carbon▲+1.21%EU carbon▼-0.63%FTSE 100▼-1.14%GBPUSD▲+0.04%GBPEUR▲+0.03%Gold▼-0.49%

Global gasiTTF▼-2.98%JKM▲+0.19%

OiliBrent▼-1.12%WTI▼-0.38%

CarboniUK carbon▲+1.21%EU carbon▼-0.63%

FTSE 100i▼-1.14%

ForexiGBPUSD▲+0.04%GBPEUR▲+0.03%

Goldi▼-0.49%

Past 6 months of daily closes. As of 3 November 2026. Change shown is the latest close against the previous close.