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Energy Market Briefing

Monday 9 November 2026 · Generated 10:00 GMT · Since Friday morning

Oil slipped on Monday after Trump said new attacks on Iran were highly unlikely while talks continue, though both sides reported ships hit near Hormuz and no deal is signed. UK gas and power eased at the 6 November close, and EU gas storage is about 73% full, well below its five-year norm and still drawing down.

UK Gas▼

Front season (Sum-27) -1.8% at the 6 Nov close

UK Power▼

Front season (Sum-27) -1.0% at the 6 Nov close

EU Storage▼

72.7% full, 18.3pp below 5yr norm

Market bias

Mixed, driven by Iran headlinesSofter · Firmer

Deal hopes weigh on prices but ship attacks and low storage keep upside risk alive.

UK gas Sum-27

5.39p/kWh

-1.8% day-on-day

UK power Sum-27

12.30p/kWh

-1.0% day-on-day

EU gas storage

72.7% full

18.3pp below 5yr norm

TTF prompt

85.45EUR/MWh

-4.6% at the 6 Nov close

Brent crude

98.32$/bbl

flat at the 6 Nov close

Today's headlines

1 · GEOPOLITICS
Oil edged lower as Trump said new Iran attacks are unlikely while talks continue, though ships were again reported hit near Hormuz.
Oil dips on Monday
Brent was near $96.45 a barrel at 06:40 GMT on Monday 9 November, down about 1.9% from Friday's $98.32 settlement, after Trump told CNN he was highly unlikely to order new attacks while talks progress. He tied any outcome to Iran signing a very strong agreement.
Ships still being hit
Iran's navy said a tanker caught fire after hitting a mine east of the Strait of Hormuz on 8 November, and the Revolutionary Guards said three vessels attempting an unauthorised transit suffered explosions. A UK maritime monitoring centre separately reported a tanker struck by an unidentified projectile. Most of these accounts come from Iranian statements and are not independently confirmed.
No deal yet
Indirect talks run through Qatari, Pakistani and Saudi mediators and no agreement has been signed. Iran says the US must end its naval blockade of its ports, and US Secretary of State Marco Rubio has called Iran's demands unacceptable. Oil fell more than 15% last week on deal hopes, so it remains sensitive to any breakdown.
2 · GAS AND POWER
UK gas and power edged lower at the 6 November close, while gas supplied about 60% of Britain's power this morning.
Prices at the 6 November close
UK gas for Sum-27 closed at 5.39 p/kWh, down 1.8% on the day, and UK power for Sum-27 at 12.30 p/kWh, down 1.0%. Win-27 was 5.15 p/kWh for UK gas and 12.10 p/kWh for UK power, down 1.3% and 1.4%. The back of the curve moved less for gas and a little more for power.
TTF background
EU TTF prompt closed at 85.45 EUR/MWh on 6 November, down 4.6% on the day, with Brent flat at $98.32. Gas followed the easing in oil as markets leaned towards a deal.
Gas carries the system, wind is very low
GridWatch at 09:40 GMT on Monday showed demand of 40.41 GW, with gas (CCGT and OCGT) supplying 24.29 GW or about 60%, nuclear 5.13 GW and wind only 0.65 GW or 1.6%. Low wind leaves UK power prices closely tied to gas. GridWatch warns its solar estimates and some data feeds are currently unreliable, so treat the mix as indicative.
3 · STORAGE
EU gas storage has fallen to about 73% full and sits well below its five-year norm, with stocks still drawing down.
Level and direction
EU gas storage was 72.7% full on 7 November (822.7 TWh), down from 845.4 TWh on 31 October, a fall of 22.7 TWh in seven days.
Gap to the norm
The five-year norm for that date is 91.0%, so storage sits 18.3 percentage points below it. The recent peak was 75.0% (849.1 TWh) on 27 October.
Why it matters
A thinner winter buffer leaves European and UK gas more exposed to supply disruption or cold weather, which is why Hormuz headlines and LNG arrivals matter so much to prices.

Forward curve & seasonal movesi

UK powerUK gas NBPmonthly forward, p/kWh · market close on 6 November 2026

6 Nov 2026

Season	Power	Δ	Gas	Δ
Sum-27	12.30	-1.01%	5.39	-1.80%
Win-27	12.10	-1.39%	5.15	-1.26%
Sum-28	7.65	-1.71%	3.16	-0.28%
Win-28	8.40	-0.87%	3.32	-0.03%
Sum-29	6.81	-2.73%	2.41	+0.18%
Win-29	7.46	-1.34%	2.71	-0.38%

Seasonal contracts in p/kWh, change is day on day, as of market close on 6 November 2026.

UK generation mixi

Gas (CCGT + OCGT)24.29 GW60.1%

Nuclear5.13 GW12.7%

Biomass3.27 GW8.1%

Solar1.61 GW4.0%

Hydro + pumped1.52 GW3.8%

Interconnectors1.15 GW2.8%

Wind0.65 GW1.6%

Other2.79 GW6.9%

As of 9 November 2026, 09:40 GMT. Tap a fuel or a slice to isolate it, tap again to reset.

EU gas storagei

Now

72.7%

5yr norm

91.0%

-18.3pp vs 5yr normDashed line: 90% winter target

Winter 2026/27 target is 90% of capacity by 1 December, with Commission flexibility down to 80%. As of 7 November 2026.

Other commoditiesi

TTF▼-4.63%JKM▼-0.24%Brent▲+0.03%WTI▲+0.34%UK carbon▼-2.75%EU carbon▼-2.67%FTSE 100▼-1.01%GBPUSD▼-0.74%GBPEUR▼-0.03%Gold▼-0.53%TTF▼-4.63%JKM▼-0.24%Brent▲+0.03%WTI▲+0.34%UK carbon▼-2.75%EU carbon▼-2.67%FTSE 100▼-1.01%GBPUSD▼-0.74%GBPEUR▼-0.03%Gold▼-0.53%

Global gasiTTF▼-4.63%JKM▼-0.24%

OiliBrent▲+0.03%WTI▲+0.34%

CarboniUK carbon▼-2.75%EU carbon▼-2.67%

FTSE 100i▼-1.01%

ForexiGBPUSD▼-0.74%GBPEUR▼-0.03%

Goldi▼-0.53%

Past 6 months of daily closes. As of 6 November 2026. Change shown is the latest close against the previous close.