Cold weekend ahead
Forecasts point to cooler weather through the second half of November, with a steep temperature drop expected over 15 and 16 November and Continental wind output forecast to fall below 4 GW by Sunday. That combination raises heating demand and gas burn for power at the same time.
Wind back for now
Wind supplied about 32% of Britain's power at 09:45 this morning, with gas at about 25%, a sharp turn from earlier in the week when wind fell below 4% of the mix, gas supplied over 64% and NESO issued an Electricity Margin Notice.
Seasonal prices at the last close
Today's Market Table repeats the 10 November close, so no newer seasonal close is available. At that close UK gas Summer 2027 eased 0.2% to 5.23 p/kWh and Winter 2027 1.2% to 4.96 p/kWh, while UK power Summer 2027 eased 0.3% to 11.98 p/kWh, with every later season lower too.
Short-term prices outside the table
The UK NBP day-ahead contract, which sits outside the seasonal table, settled at 7.25 p/kWh on 10 November, up 0.27 p/kWh on weather risk. UK power day-ahead baseload settled at 22.14 p/kWh the same day, down 2.53 p/kWh as wind recovered.
Supply side
UK continental shelf output rose to 116.1 mcm/d on 10 November, an unplanned Troll outage in Norway curtailed 5.1 mcm/d and was expected to clear within a day, and LNG sendout was scheduled at 53 mcm/d.